ICE (ICE) Q3 2025: Exchange Data Revenue Jumps 9% as AI and Network Expansion Drive Platform Edge
ICE delivered its strongest third quarter ever, powered by a 9% surge in exchange data revenue and record performance across fixed income and network services. The company’s disciplined cost structure and strategic capital deployment enabled further deleveraging and robust shareholder returns. Looking ahead, ICE’s investments in AI-driven workflow automation and proprietary data position it to capitalize on structural demand for transparency and efficiency across global markets.
Summary
- AI-Enabled Efficiency: Workflow automation is accelerating product delivery and cost leverage across segments.
- Proprietary Data Moat: Exchange and fixed income data outperformed, reinforcing ICE’s differentiation in analytics and connectivity.
- Capital Flexibility: Strong cash generation enabled debt reduction and continued buybacks, supporting future investment capacity.
Performance Analysis
ICE’s third quarter results set a new high-water mark, with net revenues of $2.4 billion underpinned by a 5% increase in recurring revenue. The exchange segment contributed $1.3 billion, maintaining momentum after consecutive years of double-digit growth. Notably, recurring revenue from exchange data and NYSE listings hit a record $389 million, up 7% year over year, reflecting sustained demand for proprietary, high-value data.
Fixed income and data services also delivered record results, with revenues reaching $618 million. Recurring revenue in this segment rose 7%, driven by pricing, reference data, and robust ETF index growth. Mortgage technology revenues climbed 4%, with transaction revenue up 12% on strong loan and registration activity. Operating expenses were well managed, benefiting from $15 million in one-time items, and ICE returned $674 million to shareholders while reducing gross leverage below 3x EBITDA.
- Exchange Open Interest Surge: Futures and options open interest spiked 16% YoY, led by energy (+14%) and interest rates (+37%), signaling rising risk management demand.
- Network Technology Acceleration: Data and network technology revenue growth accelerated to 10%, up from 7% in H1, as clients ramped up AI and connectivity spend.
- Mortgage Platform Resilience: Despite seasonal volume headwinds, ICE signed major new clients and advanced MSP replatforming, bolstering long-term competitive positioning.
ICE’s diversified revenue mix, disciplined expense management, and accelerating technology adoption underscore the durability of its business model in a shifting macro environment.
Executive Commentary
"Our record third quarter results on top of our extraordinary third quarter results of last year are another example of strong execution across our all weather platform."
Jeff Sprecher, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
"Third quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, up 10% year over year, and the best third quarter in our company's history. Net revenues totaled $2.4 billion and were underpinned by a 5% increase in recurring revenue."
Warren Gardner, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. AI-Driven Workflow Automation
ICE Aurora, the firm’s AI platform, is transforming business processes by automating complex, highly regulated workflows across trading, data, and mortgage operations. ICE applies a rigorous risk assessment to determine automation maturity, balancing efficiency gains with regulatory and compliance needs. In mortgage, AI has shifted core platforms from “systems of record” to “systems of intelligence,” orchestrating intricate interactions between clients, service providers, and compliance frameworks.
2. Proprietary Data and Network Scale
ICE’s proprietary pricing, reference, and connectivity data remain a core differentiator, especially as AI adoption in trading amplifies demand for high-quality, exclusive datasets. The ICE global network connects over 750 data sources and 150 trading venues, with continued investment in data centers and cloud integration ensuring resilience, low latency, and secure delivery. This infrastructure supports both internal AI workloads and client-facing analytics, reinforcing customer lock-in.
3. Platform Expansion and Capital Allocation
ICE’s strategic investments in Polymarket, a leader in event-driven data and blockchain-based settlement, signal a proactive approach to the evolution of market infrastructure. The Polymarket partnership deepens ICE’s reach into prediction markets and accelerates its understanding of blockchain-enabled collateral management, with the potential to enhance clearinghouse efficiency and unlock new trading volumes. Meanwhile, disciplined capital returns and debt reduction preserve balance sheet flexibility for future growth and innovation.
4. Mortgage Technology Modernization
Replatforming MSP, ICE’s flagship mortgage servicing system, is ahead of schedule thanks to AI-enabled code conversion. This modernization is expected to drive material cost reductions, faster product cycles, and improved client experience, solidifying ICE’s leadership as an independent, neutral technology provider in mortgage infrastructure.
Key Considerations
The quarter showcased ICE’s ability to execute on both operational discipline and forward-looking technology investments, while navigating cyclical and structural shifts in its end markets.
Key Considerations:
- Structural Data Demand: Growth in recurring data revenue reflects secular appetite for transparency, analytics, and regulatory compliance in global markets.
- AI and Automation Leverage: AI is delivering tangible efficiency gains, with ICE targeting “more with the same” headcount and faster product delivery, though full automation remains bounded by regulatory risk tolerance.
- Clearinghouse Innovation: Blockchain-enabled collateral management and 24x7 settlement could unlock capital efficiency and drive incremental trading volumes.
- Mortgage Platform Stickiness: ICE’s integration of compliance, proprietary workflow, and network connectivity underpins client retention and new wins, even as some large clients build proprietary systems.
Risks
Regulatory uncertainty around blockchain settlement, event contracts, and AI-driven automation could slow adoption or increase compliance costs. Competitive threats in mortgage technology from proprietary and non-neutral platforms, as well as customer attrition (e.g., PennyMac’s eventual exit), may pressure recurring revenue growth. Seasonal and macro-driven volume fluctuations in mortgage and trading activity remain ongoing variables.
Forward Outlook
For Q4 2025, ICE guided to:
- Adjusted operating expenses of $1.15 billion, up sequentially as one-time Q3 benefits do not repeat
- Non-operating expense of $180-185 million, reflecting higher interest from the Polymarket investment
For full-year 2025, management expects:
- Exchange segment growth at the high end of the 4% to 5% range
- Fixed income and data services recurring revenue growth of 5% to 6%
Management highlighted continued investment in AI, data centers, and proprietary datasets, as well as strong sales momentum in mortgage technology, as key drivers for Q4 and 2026.
- Normalization of tax rate to 24-26% in Q4
- Seasonal mortgage volume softness offset by new client ramp-up and higher transaction fees
Takeaways
ICE’s Q3 performance reinforces its position as a leading global market infrastructure provider, with a robust data moat and accelerating AI leverage.
- Data and Network Edge: Proprietary data and resilient network infrastructure are driving recurring revenue and deepening customer engagement, especially as market participants seek differentiated analytics for AI strategies.
- AI-Enabled Productivity: Workflow automation is compressing product cycles and cost structures, improving scalability across trading, data, and mortgage operations.
- Strategic Innovation Watch: Investors should monitor ICE’s progress in blockchain-enabled clearing and further AI integration, as well as resilience to mortgage technology competition and cyclical volume swings.
Conclusion
ICE’s record-setting third quarter reflects the compounding impact of strategic investment in data, technology, and operational discipline. The company’s forward momentum in AI, network infrastructure, and platform partnerships positions it to capture both cyclical and secular growth opportunities, while maintaining capital flexibility for future innovation.
Industry Read-Through
ICE’s performance and commentary provide a clear read-through for the broader exchange, data, and fintech ecosystem: Demand for proprietary, high-quality data is accelerating as AI adoption reshapes trading and risk management workflows, raising the bar for differentiated analytics and network connectivity. Blockchain-enabled collateral and 24x7 settlement are emerging as structural shifts that could compress capital requirements and boost trading activity across global clearinghouses. Mortgage technology remains a battleground, with integration, compliance, and workflow automation as critical differentiators. Firms lacking scale, proprietary datasets, or the ability to deliver AI-driven efficiency will face mounting competitive pressure as clients demand both cost savings and innovation.