SSR Mining (SSRM) Q3 2025: $72M Pre-Working Capital FCF Underscores Portfolio Growth Amid Cost Pressure
SSR Mining’s third quarter demonstrated resilient free cash flow generation and operational progress, but persistent cost pressure and production mix keep results anchored to the lower end of guidance. Strategic updates on Hod Maden and Cripple Creek reinforce the company’s focus on organic growth and asset optimization, while the path to a Cherpler restart remains complex but supported by rising community backing. Investors should monitor technical report releases and the Q4 production ramp for near-term catalysts.
Summary
- Portfolio Growth Focus: SSR Mining advanced multiple organic projects, with technical reports for Hod Maden and Cripple Creek set to shape future capital allocation.
- Cost Discipline Tested: Higher gold prices and share-based comp drove all-in sustaining costs toward the top end of guidance.
- Q4 Production Ramp: Execution at Marigold and CCMB will be critical for achieving the lower half of annual output targets.
Performance Analysis
SSR Mining delivered 103,000 gold equivalent ounces in Q3, with production on track for the lower half of full-year guidance. The company’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) reached $2,359 per ounce, trending toward the upper end of guidance, a dynamic attributed to higher royalty expenses (driven by increased gold prices) and elevated share-based compensation. These cost headwinds partially offset the benefit of robust realized gold pricing, which exceeded $3,500 per ounce for the quarter.
Despite these pressures, free cash flow before working capital movements came in at $72 million, highlighting the underlying margin resilience and the ability to fund ongoing growth initiatives. Segment performance was mixed: Marigold and CCMB (Cripple Creek & Victor) delivered planned output, but Seabee underperformed on grade while Puna maintained strong silver production at low cost. Liquidity remains a core strength, with $409 million in cash and over $900 million in total liquidity, providing ample flexibility for project advancement and potential M&A.
- Marigold Ore Blending Challenge: Higher-than-expected fines at Red Dot required operational adjustments, impacting recovery and necessitating careful Q4 execution.
- CCMB Integration Success: CCMB generated nearly $115 million in asset-level free cash flow since acquisition, validating the $100 million upfront investment.
- Seabee Grade Drag: Lower-than-expected grades at Seabee, due to increased development and ore mix, weighed on segment performance and margin.
Overall, SSRM’s Q3 results reflect a company balancing organic growth investment with near-term cost headwinds, setting up a pivotal Q4 for both operational delivery and strategic clarity.
Executive Commentary
"Our third quarter results have us tracking close out the year in the lower half of our production guidance, where we continue to expect a stronger fourth quarter. Our full year oil and sustaining costs are trending towards the high end of annual guidance, and this is largely due to the impacts of higher gold prices on royalties, as well as the share price performance over the year to date impacting share based compensation calculations."
Rod Antle, Executive Chairman
"We ended the quarter in a strong financial position with $409 million in cash and total liquidity of over $900 million. Our strong balance sheet ensures capacity to fund our numerous growth initiatives across the portfolio, which includes Hod Madden, where we incurred another $17 million in capital during the quarter."
Michael Sparks, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Organic Growth Pipeline
SSR Mining’s capital allocation remains heavily weighted toward organic project advancement, with Hod Maden and Cripple Creek & Victor (CCMB) as focal points. Hod Maden, a copper-gold project in Turkey, is approaching a comprehensive technical report and construction decision, with $44 million spent year-to-date and a full-year target of $60-100 million. Cripple Creek’s upcoming technical report will clarify resource potential and mine life extension, tying directly to the Amendment 14 expansion permit already in progress.
2. Operational Optimization and Mine Life Extension
Marigold’s Buffalo Valley and Puna’s Chinchillas/Cortaderas targets exemplify SSRM’s push for mine life extension through drilling and resource conversion. At Marigold, blending challenges and ore fines are being addressed through technical collaboration and new leach cell utilization, while Buffalo Valley integration could materially extend site life. Puna’s continued silver output at low cost and ongoing drilling at Chinchillas/Cortaderas reinforce the importance of incremental organic growth in offsetting asset-specific volatility.
3. Portfolio Resilience and M&A Discipline
Management reiterated a disciplined approach to M&A, emphasizing bolt-on and strategic fits within core jurisdictions (Canada, US, Argentina, Turkey). The recent CCMB acquisition has already generated a near-immediate return, demonstrating the company’s ability to integrate and optimize acquired assets. SSR Mining’s balance sheet strength and liquidity provide optionality for both organic and inorganic growth, but leadership emphasized a continued focus on rigorous due diligence and strategic alignment.
4. Cherpler Restart and Stakeholder Management
The path to restarting Cherpler remains uncertain but is increasingly supported by local community advocacy, as economic pressures mount in the region. Management is focused on completing technical remediation and regulatory approval steps, with public support now visible in media and local demonstrations. While community sentiment helps, the regulatory process remains the gating factor for restart timing.
Key Considerations
SSR Mining’s Q3 underscores the importance of operational flexibility, disciplined capital allocation, and stakeholder management as the company navigates both opportunity and constraint across its portfolio.
Key Considerations:
- Hod Maden Decision Point: The upcoming technical report and construction decision will determine the pace and scale of SSRM’s next growth phase.
- CCMB Integration Model: Early success at CCMB validates SSRM’s bolt-on acquisition strategy, but future resource conversion depends on permitting additional leach capacity.
- Cost Structure Sensitivity: Royalty and compensation costs are acutely sensitive to commodity and share price moves, requiring ongoing vigilance.
- Q4 Production Execution: Delivering a strong Q4 at Marigold and CCMB is essential to meet annual targets and support investor confidence.
- Cherpler Regulatory Path: Community support is rising, but regulatory clearance remains the critical hurdle for restart and future cash flow recovery.
Risks
SSR Mining faces several material risks: cost inflation remains a persistent threat, particularly as royalty and compensation expenses rise with gold and share prices. Operational execution risk is elevated at Marigold (ore blending) and Seabee (grade variability), while Cherpler’s restart is subject to regulatory and social license uncertainty. Permitting delays at CCMB and Hod Maden could impact future reserve conversion and project timelines, and volatile commodity prices add further unpredictability to margin structure.
Forward Outlook
For Q4 2025, SSR Mining guided to:
- Production weighted toward Marigold and CCMB, with incremental improvement at Seabee.
- All-in sustaining costs expected to remain at the higher end of guidance due to ongoing royalty and compensation headwinds.
For full-year 2025, management maintained guidance:
- 410,000 to 480,000 gold equivalent ounces, likely at the lower half of the range.
- Hod Maden growth capital spend of $60-100 million, trending toward midpoint.
Management highlighted several factors that will influence year-end outcomes:
- Marigold ore blending and leach cell utilization are critical to Q4 delivery.
- Technical report releases for Hod Maden and Cripple Creek will set the stage for 2026 capital allocation.
Takeaways
SSR Mining’s Q3 was defined by steady operational progress amid cost headwinds, with free cash flow and liquidity enabling continued investment in growth projects. The company’s organic pipeline is advancing, but near-term execution and regulatory outcomes will be decisive for future valuation.
- Operational Focus: Q4 delivery at Marigold and CCMB will determine if guidance is met and cost creep contained.
- Strategic Clarity: Technical reports for Hod Maden and Cripple Creek are set to unlock the next phase of organic and inorganic growth.
- Watch for Catalysts: Cherpler restart progress and reserve conversion at CCMB are key swing factors for 2026 and beyond.
Conclusion
SSR Mining’s third quarter highlights the company’s operational resilience and disciplined growth focus, even as cost pressures and production mix weigh on near-term results. The next six months will be pivotal, with project decisions and regulatory outcomes poised to shape the portfolio’s trajectory into 2026.
Industry Read-Through
SSR Mining’s quarter provides a microcosm of sector dynamics: rising gold prices are a double-edged sword, boosting realized pricing but inflating royalty and compensation costs. The company’s emphasis on organic growth and disciplined M&A is echoed across the precious metals space, as producers seek to extend mine life and optimize portfolios amid resource depletion. Permitting and social license risk remain material across the industry, with Cherpler’s restart saga highlighting the importance of stakeholder alignment and regulatory navigation. Investors should expect continued focus on free cash flow, capital discipline, and project pipeline visibility as key differentiators among gold and silver miners.