Fold Holdings (FLD) Q3 2025: Bitcoin Treasury Climbs 53% as Credit Card Waitlist Surpasses 80,000

2025-11-10 | By EarningsIQ Research

Fold’s Q3 2025 results reveal a business rapidly deepening its Bitcoin-centric financial ecosystem, with robust organic growth, expanding product channels, and a surging Bitcoin treasury. Momentum in new product launches, especially the highly anticipated credit card and physical gift card rollout, positions Fold for a pivotal Q4 and 2026 as it seeks to capture a generational shift in financial preferences. Operational leverage and capital discipline remain central, as management eyes scalable, cross-sell-powered growth and wider market penetration.

Summary

• Bitcoin Ecosystem Expansion: Fold’s treasury strategy and product launches signal a full-stack Bitcoin-first financial platform.
• Distribution Channels Accelerate: Gift card rollout and credit card waitlist drive organic, cost-negative user growth.
• Next-Stage Growth Catalysts: Q4 seasonality and new product adoption set the stage for outsized 2026 impact.

Performance Analysis

Fold’s Q3 2025 results underscore organic revenue growth and expanding user engagement, with net revenues up 41% year over year and transaction volumes up 43% for the quarter. Year-to-date revenue climbed 48%, driven primarily by legacy products and deeper penetration among existing customers, while new business lines like the Bitcoin gift card and soon-to-launch credit card have yet to materially contribute. Operating expenses rose to $13.3 million (from $9.4 million YoY), reflecting volume-driven cost of sales and public company overhead, but operational discipline was evident as Q3 operating costs fell nearly 10% sequentially.

Profitability swung sharply positive, with GAAP net income near $1 million, primarily on the back of a $10.2 million increase in Bitcoin treasury fair value. Adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $4.2 million, flat year over year, but management stressed that all core business lines are gross margin positive, providing a foundation for future operating leverage. Liquidity is solid, with $6.7 million in cash and a $154 million Bitcoin position, supporting continued investment in growth initiatives.

• Bitcoin-Driven Upside: Treasury appreciation and user demand for Bitcoin rewards products are translating to tangible financial and engagement gains.
• Organic Growth Engine: Minimal paid marketing, with new user acquisition driven by product-led expansion and network effects.
• Operating Leverage Emerging: Gross margin positive lines and cost discipline signal scalable economics as new products ramp.

Fold’s business model—combining payment products, rewards, and a Bitcoin treasury—continues to benefit from both crypto adoption tailwinds and traditional financial product demand, with the company positioned to capture wallet share as new generations seek Bitcoin-centric solutions.

Executive Commentary

Strategic Positioning

1. Bitcoin Treasury as Strategic Core

Fold’s 1,526 Bitcoin treasury, up 53% since IPO, is more than a balance sheet asset—it anchors Fold’s brand, drives capital market strategy, and aligns with the company’s vision of being a premier Bitcoin financial services provider. Management is explicit that Fold is not merely an “arbitrage” treasury play, but a full-stack operating company, with treasury growth measured in “stats per share” as a key metric for shareholder value.

2. Multi-Channel Product Expansion

The launch of the Bitcoin gift card (now in 2,000 Kroger locations and online) and imminent credit card rollout (80,000+ waitlist) signal a shift to broad, physical and digital distribution, enabling Fold to reach both crypto-native and mainstream audiences. The gift card is already acting as a negative-cost acquisition channel, while the credit card is expected to drive higher share of wallet and rapid cross-sell into Fold’s ecosystem.

3. Organic and Viral Growth Model

Fold’s user growth is predominantly organic, with minimal paid marketing and strong referral effects from satisfied customers and partners. The gift card, in particular, is catalyzing viral adoption, with management highlighting its power as a promotional tool across retail, loyalty, and employer channels.

4. Scalable, Synergistic Ecosystem

Fold is methodically building a suite of interconnected products—debit, credit, gift, and exchange—designed for seamless cross-sell and user retention. This approach aims to maximize lifetime value, as customers migrate from single-use rewards to full banking and payment relationships, deepening engagement and stickiness.

5. Capital Flexibility and Risk Management

With a $250 million equity facility and a $45 million revolving credit line (collateralized by Bitcoin), Fold is preserving capital flexibility without diluting shareholders or liquidating treasury assets, enabling opportunistic investment in growth and product launches while retaining long-term upside from Bitcoin appreciation.

Key Considerations

This quarter marks a strategic inflection for Fold, as management leverages unique product channels and capital discipline to position for breakout growth in 2026. The company’s ability to scale new offerings and convert its large installed base into power users will be critical as competition intensifies in Bitcoin and fintech verticals.

Key Considerations:

• Gift Card as Negative CAC Engine: The Bitcoin gift card is generating revenue while acquiring new users, inverting the typical customer acquisition cost model and providing a template for further low-cost growth.
• Credit Card Launch as Wallet Share Catalyst: The upcoming credit card is expected to unlock both higher per-user economics and access to a broader demographic, with the majority of the waitlist representing net new customers.
• Cross-Sell Synergy: Early data shows gift card recipients are engaging with multiple Fold products, supporting management’s thesis of a synergistic, interconnected product suite.
• Seasonal Tailwind for Q4: With 80% of annual gift card sales occurring in November and December, Fold is entering its highest-volume period with new distribution and products fully in market.
• Capital Structure Discipline: Management is using credit facilities and equity lines opportunistically, avoiding dilution and maintaining alignment with long-term Bitcoin value creation.

Risks

Bitcoin price volatility remains a core risk, affecting both treasury value and user engagement. Execution risk is rising as Fold scales new products and distribution channels, with operational missteps or delays potentially impacting momentum. Regulatory uncertainty around Bitcoin financial services could alter Fold’s product roadmap or economics, especially as new lines like lending and retirement products are evaluated. Competition from both fintech incumbents and crypto-native entrants is intensifying, raising the stakes for differentiation and user retention.

Forward Outlook

For Q4, Fold expects:

• Seasonal acceleration in transaction volumes and revenues, as Q4 is historically the highest spending quarter.
• Material contribution from the Bitcoin gift card channel as holiday sales ramp.

For full-year 2025, management reiterated:

• Revenue growth trajectory approaching 50% year over year, barring unforeseen macro or operational shocks.

Management highlighted several factors that will shape the next phase:

• Credit card launch and scaling through Q1 2026, with full general availability targeted.
• Expanded distribution of the gift card into new retail and promotional channels, including loyalty and employer networks.

Takeaways

Fold’s Q3 results validate the company’s product-led, Bitcoin-first strategy, with organic growth, operational discipline, and capital flexibility supporting a robust platform for future expansion.

• Product-Led Growth: New distribution channels and viral adoption are driving user growth and engagement, with minimal reliance on paid marketing.
• Strategic Treasury Management: Bitcoin holdings are a core differentiator, anchoring both financial strategy and brand identity, while capital facilities provide flexibility without forced dilution.
• 2026 Inflection Point: Execution on credit card rollout and gift card channel scaling will be critical in converting a large top-of-funnel user base into deep, high-value relationships.

Conclusion

Fold is executing on its vision of a Bitcoin-centric financial services platform, with strong momentum in user growth, product rollout, and treasury expansion. The next two quarters will be pivotal as new products scale and cross-sell opportunities are realized, setting the stage for a potentially transformative 2026.

Industry Read-Through

Fold’s results highlight a growing appetite for mainstream Bitcoin financial products, signaling a broader shift as fintechs and legacy banks eye crypto-native rewards, payment, and savings products. The success of physical and digital distribution channels for Bitcoin products suggests that crypto utility is moving beyond speculative trading and into everyday consumer finance. For industry peers, the negative-cost acquisition model and cross-sell synergy between rewards and banking products represent a playbook for scaling in a competitive landscape. As regulatory clarity improves and generational wealth shifts accelerate, the competitive bar for product integration and user experience will only rise.

FLD Financials Fintech Bitcoin Rewards Credit card Gift card Customer acquisition