EVGO (EVGO) Q3 2025: Throughput Per Stall Surges 6x, Unlocking EBITDA Inflection
EVGO’s Q3 2025 marked a pivotal operational inflection, as average daily throughput per stall climbed sixfold since 2022, driving the company to the threshold of adjusted EBITDA breakeven. Strategic capital discipline, robust network effects, and early traction with NACS connectors are positioning EVGO to accelerate margin expansion and cash generation into 2026, despite a more tempered EV adoption outlook. Investors should focus on the company’s embedded operating leverage and capital-light growth model as industry consolidation looms.
Summary
- Operating Leverage Accelerates: Fixed cost structure and rising throughput per stall are driving rapid margin expansion.
- Network Effects Deepen: Customer base and energy dispensed have multiplied, reinforcing EVGO’s scale advantage.
- Capital Efficiency and Upside: Lower net CapEx per stall and NACS pilot traction set up for outsized returns in 2026 and beyond.
Performance Analysis
EVGO’s Q3 2025 results showcased the company’s maturing business model, with revenue reaching $92 million, up 37% year-over-year, and record charging network revenues. The public network throughput rose 25% YoY to 95 GWh, while total energy dispensed over the trailing 12 months hit 350 GWh, a 13-fold increase since 2021. Charging network gross margin expanded to 35%, up a percentage point, as operating leverage from fixed per-stall costs compounded with higher utilization rates.
Customer accounts surpassed 1.6 million, nearly five times the 2021 base, amplifying network effects and driving consistent outperformance versus industry EV vehicle-in-operation (VIO) growth. Adjusted EBITDA improved by $4 million YoY to negative $5 million, with the company on track for breakeven in Q4. Net CapEx per stall was reduced by 27% versus plan, and gross CapEx per stall for 2025 fell 17% from 2023, reflecting disciplined capital allocation and improved procurement.
- Stall Deployment Mix Shifts: Fewer public/dedicated stalls, more extend (Pilot Flying J) stalls, optimizing capital deployment.
- Margin Expansion: Adjusted gross margin rose 230 basis points YoY to 29% in Q3, with further improvement expected in Q4.
- Capital Offsets: 40% capital offsets achieved for 2025 vintage CapEx, leveraging state, utility, and OEM incentives.
EVGO’s stall count reached 4,590, up 2.7x from 2021, and the company’s guidance signals a strong Q4 build-out. The business is demonstrating durable growth, capital efficiency, and margin trajectory even as EV market forecasts moderate.
Executive Commentary
"Unlike other companies in the EV charging space, EVgo's revenue has grown consistently and predictably faster than the growth in EV vehicles in operation, growing at double the CAGR of VIO growth over the past four years...we are nearing a critical milestone, delivering break-even adjusted EBITDA, which we expect to achieve in the fourth quarter."
Badar Khan, Chief Executive Officer
"Charging network gross margin has grown from the mid-teens to the mid to high 30s, reflecting the leverage of fixed cost of sales on a per stall basis as throughput per stall rises. And importantly, we continue to deliver improving profitability and adjusted EBITDA margin has made significant improvements driven by increasing revenues, leverage of fixed costs, and disciplined cost management."
Paul Dobson, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Embedded Operating Leverage
EVGO’s cost structure is built for scale, with approximately two-thirds of G&A and 28% of cost of sales fixed per stall. As throughput per stall rises, incremental revenue flows disproportionately to the bottom line, accelerating adjusted EBITDA growth. Management expects this dynamic to intensify post-2025, targeting $500 million in adjusted EBITDA at mid-30s margins by 2029.
2. Network Effects and Utilization
EVGO’s customer base and energy dispensed have multiplied, creating a virtuous cycle of higher utilization and improved returns. Average daily throughput per stall has grown from under 50 kWh in Q1 2022 to 295 kWh in Q3 2025, with management targeting 450–500 kWh by 2029. High utilization is both a competitive moat and a capital efficiency driver.
3. Capital Efficiency and Incentive Capture
Disciplined CapEx management is a core differentiator. 2025 net CapEx per stall is projected at $75,000, down 40% after offsets from incentives and OEM payments. The next-gen charging architecture is expected to further lower gross CapEx per stall by 25% by 2029, supporting higher returns and derisking the growth plan.
4. NACS Connector Expansion
EVGO’s NACS (North American Charging Standard) pilot is showing early promise, with Tesla driver usage increasing at retrofitted sites. Management is taking a data-driven approach, maintaining 100 NACS-equipped stalls through Q4 to refine the rollout strategy, with a larger scale deployment planned for 2026. This unlocks access to roughly half the EV fleet not previously using the network, representing a major untapped revenue stream.
5. Dynamic Pricing and AV Fleet Partnerships
Dynamic pricing (real-time adjustment of charging rates) has driven double-digit overnight utilization, smoothing load and maximizing asset productivity. Dedicated fleet partnerships, especially with autonomous vehicle (AV) operators, provide long-term, fixed-fee contracts and one-time gains on sale, adding a new dimension to revenue streams and cash flow visibility.
Key Considerations
Q3 2025’s results highlight the interplay of operating leverage, capital discipline, and network expansion as EVGO’s core value drivers. The company’s ability to grow revenue faster than EV adoption, reduce per-stall CapEx, and monetize new customer segments (Tesla, AV fleets) will be central to its long-term margin and cash flow profile.
Key Considerations:
- Stall Mix Optimization: Shifting toward extend stalls and measured public/dedicated build supports capital returns and risk management.
- Seasonality and Tariff Exposure: Summer tariffs and winter utilization patterns impact quarterly margin cadence, though long-term expansion remains intact.
- AV Fleet Revenue Model: Dedicated AV contracts provide immediate gains on sale and recurring fixed fees, but are non-recurring and subject to partner exits.
- Industry Consolidation Potential: Scale, site selection, and customer network position EVGO as a likely beneficiary as smaller players struggle.
- Capital Structure Strength: DOE loan advances and a $225 million commercial facility (expandable to $300 million) secure funding through 2029 without new equity dilution.
Risks
EVGO faces risks from slower-than-expected EV adoption, regulatory uncertainty (federal incentives sunsetting in 2026), and potential delays in large contract payments, such as AV fleet closeouts. Seasonality in utilization and energy costs can pressure margins, while industry competition and consolidation may intensify. Management’s guidance reflects conservatism on both demand and upside contract timing, but execution on NACS rollout and next-gen architecture remains critical for sustained outperformance.
Forward Outlook
For Q4 2025, EVGO guided to:
- Adjusted EBITDA breakeven at the midpoint of baseline guidance
- A very large quarter for new stall deployments, especially extend stalls
For full-year 2025, management provided:
- Baseline revenue of $350–$365 million, with upside to $405 million if AV contract closeout is recognized
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance of negative $15 million to negative $8 million baseline, with upside to positive $23 million
Management highlighted:
- Charging network revenues are expected to remain about 60% of total revenue, with margin improvement in Q4
- 2026 stall build guidance will be issued with Q4 results; expect public/dedicated stall growth to double in 2026 versus 2025
Takeaways
EVGO’s Q3 2025 results confirm the company’s inflection to positive EBITDA, underpinned by rising utilization, disciplined capital allocation, and emerging new revenue streams. The business is structurally positioned for accelerating profitability as scale and fixed cost leverage compound.
- EBITDA Inflection is Real: Fixed cost leverage and strong throughput are propelling the business toward sustained profitability, with positive adjusted EBITDA within reach.
- Capital-Light Growth Model: Incentive-driven CapEx reductions and commercial financing eliminate near-term equity needs, supporting shareholder value.
- 2026 Will Be Pivotal: NACS rollout, next-gen architecture, and AV fleet partnerships will drive incremental upside and test the resilience of the revenue model amid evolving EV adoption trends.
Conclusion
EVGO’s Q3 2025 marked a critical turning point, with throughput, margin, and capital efficiency all converging to set up accelerated EBITDA growth. The company’s scale, network effects, and capital discipline position it as a leader in a consolidating industry, with multiple embedded levers for upside as new technologies and customer segments come online.
Industry Read-Through
EVGO’s Q3 results provide a clear read-through for the U.S. fast-charging sector: scale, utilization, and capital discipline are separating winners from laggards as EV adoption normalizes. High fixed-cost leverage and data-driven site selection are critical for margin expansion, while access to non-dilutive capital is increasingly a competitive moat. The NACS transition is likely to accelerate network convergence and competitive repositioning. AV fleet partnerships and dynamic pricing will become key differentiators as the sector matures, and smaller players may struggle to compete on cost and customer experience. Investors should expect further industry consolidation and a premium for operators with proven network effects and capital efficiency.