Energy Vault (NRGV) Q3 2025: Backlog Doubles to $920M as Asset Vault Launch Accelerates Recurring EBITDA
Energy Vault’s Q3 marked a structural inflection, launching Asset Vault and doubling its project backlog to $920 million, underpinning a multi-year pivot toward recurring EBITDA from owned storage assets. With Australia now driving more than half of revenue and U.S. project deliveries ramping, management is executing on vertical integration and capital recycling while navigating tariff volatility and macro uncertainty. Guidance holds steady into year-end, with a substantial cash influx expected in Q4 to fund the next phase of growth.
Summary
- Backlog Expansion: Project backlog surged, reinforcing multi-year revenue visibility and platform scale.
- Asset Vault Shift: Launch of owned asset platform sets up recurring, higher-margin EBITDA streams.
- Execution in Volatile Markets: Operational agility and capital discipline position Energy Vault to weather tariff and macro swings.
Performance Analysis
Energy Vault’s Q3 revenue grew to $33.3 million, up from $1.2 million a year ago, reflecting a 27-fold increase driven by Australian project execution and initial Asset Vault contributions. The company’s gross margin for the quarter was 27 percent, with a year-to-date average of nearly 33 percent, underscoring strong project delivery and supply chain management. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $6 million from $14.7 million, as higher revenue and project margins offset flat operating expenses.
Backlog reached $920 million, more than doubling year-to-date and quadrupling versus last year, with new awards from Consumers Energy and long-term contracts in Australia and the U.S. Notably, the backlog does not yet include recent wins in Texas (SOSA) and Albania (EU Green), which will further bolster forward visibility. Cash rose to $61.9 million, with another $30 to $40 million in investment tax credits expected in Q4, setting up a projected year-end cash position of $75 to $100 million.
- Australian Projects Drive Growth: Over half of Q3 revenue originated from Australia, where grid interconnection projects are coming online.
- Recurring Revenue Mix Rises: The first contributions from owned IPP assets in Texas and California began in Q3, initiating the shift to recurring EBITDA.
- Operating Leverage Emerges: Gross margin resilience and OpEx discipline narrowed losses despite rapid topline growth.
Energy Vault’s performance signals that its vertically integrated model is gaining traction, with execution in both EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) and asset ownership yielding stronger cash flow prospects.
Executive Commentary
"Our third quarter of 2025 was one of the most pivotal in Energy Vault's history. The quarter marked the formal launch of our asset vault platform, solid execution across our global project base, and the establishment of the financial foundation that will fuel our next phase of profitable growth."
Robert Picone, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
"With the backing of the $300 million preferred equity investment from OIC, Asset Vault creates a vertically integrated ecosystem that captures value across the entire energy storage lifecycle. That platform combines Energy Vault's proven operational expertise with long-term asset ownership to generate predictable, recurring, and high-margin cash flows."
Michael Beer, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Asset Vault Platform Unlocks Recurring Value
Asset Vault, Energy Vault’s new own-and-operate platform, is a strategic pivot from pure EPC to vertically integrated asset ownership. Backed by a $300 million preferred equity investment from Orion Infrastructure, Asset Vault targets 1.5 gigawatts of storage projects, with four initial projects expected to deliver $40 million in recurring adjusted EBITDA by 2027. This model shift is designed to capture margin across the full project lifecycle, from development through long-term operations, and to generate stable, annuity-like cash flows.
2. Backlog and Pipeline Expansion Underpin Growth
The $920 million backlog represents a 112 percent year-to-date increase, driven by wins in the U.S. and Australia. Importantly, the backlog excludes recent awards in Texas and Albania, which will be added as milestones are hit. The advanced pipeline now stands at $2.1 billion (8.7 GWh), with a focus on high-IRR, contracted projects. This deep pipeline provides multi-year visibility and supports the company’s guidance for a steep revenue ramp into 2026 and beyond.
3. Capital Recycling and Balance Sheet Strength
Energy Vault’s financial strategy centers on non-dilutive project financing, leveraging preferred equity and investment tax credits to fund growth while minimizing parent-level dilution. Cash generation has improved for three consecutive quarters, with a Q4 inflow of $30 to $40 million in ITCs expected. Management’s ability to recycle capital from completed projects into new developments is a key enabler of the company’s growth ambitions.
4. Operational Agility Amid Tariff and Macro Volatility
Management highlighted the ability to navigate U.S. tariff swings and supply chain disruptions, noting that only about 10 percent of backlog is exposed to U.S. battery import tariffs. By maintaining a diverse project footprint and agile deal structuring, Energy Vault has been able to sustain project momentum even as macro and policy headwinds persist.
Key Considerations
Q3’s results reflect a decisive transition for Energy Vault, as the company executes on its strategy to become a vertically integrated energy storage platform with a growing base of recurring, high-margin cash flows. Investors should focus on the following:
Key Considerations:
- Recurring EBITDA Visibility: Asset Vault’s initial projects are expected to deliver $40 million in recurring EBITDA by 2027, with an eventual run-rate of $100 to $150 million by 2029 as the portfolio matures.
- Backlog Quality and Conversion: The $920 million backlog, plus pipeline additions, offer multi-year topline visibility, but execution risk remains as projects move from award to completion.
- Capital Efficiency and Non-Dilutive Funding: Preferred equity and ITC monetization reduce dilution risk and support ongoing project development without straining the balance sheet.
- Exposure to Tariff and Policy Shocks: Management’s proactive hedging and deal structuring limit direct tariff exposure, but broader policy volatility could still impact project timelines and economics.
Risks
Energy Vault faces execution risk as it scales Asset Vault and delivers on a rapidly expanding backlog. Regulatory and tariff volatility, particularly around U.S. battery imports, could disrupt supply chains or delay project milestones. The transition to an own-and-operate model also introduces new operational and capital allocation complexities, with recurring EBITDA targets dependent on successful project ramp-up and long-term asset performance.
Forward Outlook
For Q4 2025, Energy Vault guided to:
- Significant sequential revenue growth, driven by major project deliveries in Australia and the U.S.
- Cash balance rising to $75 to $100 million, supported by investment tax credit inflows.
For full-year 2025, management maintained guidance:
- Revenue of $200 to $250 million
- Gross margin of 14 to 16 percent
Management emphasized continued focus on backlog conversion, operational execution, and capital discipline, with Australia expected to remain a key growth driver into 2026.
- Asset Vault ramp and project financing milestones will be pivotal for recurring EBITDA growth.
- Monitoring regulatory and tariff developments remains essential for risk management.
Takeaways
Energy Vault’s Q3 signals a foundational shift from project-based revenue to recurring asset-driven EBITDA, with backlog momentum and disciplined capital deployment underpinning long-term growth.
- Recurring Cash Flow Inflection: Asset Vault’s launch and contracted pipeline lay the groundwork for high-visibility, long-duration EBITDA streams, moving Energy Vault closer to full-year profitability.
- Execution in Dynamic Markets: Management’s operational agility and proactive risk management have enabled growth despite macro and policy headwinds, with a focus on maintaining guidance and margin discipline.
- Future Watchpoints: Investors should track Asset Vault project ramp, backlog conversion rates, and the impact of regulatory or supply chain disruptions on execution and capital returns.
Conclusion
Energy Vault’s Q3 2025 results mark a turning point, as the company delivers on its vertical integration strategy, doubles its backlog, and positions itself for recurring EBITDA growth through Asset Vault. The next twelve months will be critical for project execution, capital recycling, and scaling recurring revenue, with management’s disciplined approach and operational agility providing cautious optimism for investors.
Industry Read-Through
Energy Vault’s results highlight the accelerating shift in the energy storage industry from pure EPC models to vertically integrated asset ownership, as recurring revenue and long-term contracts become increasingly valued by investors and partners. The company’s ability to secure non-dilutive financing, navigate supply chain and policy volatility, and scale a multi-gigawatt pipeline offers a template for other storage and renewables players seeking durable cash flow streams. Australia’s prominence as a growth market and the rising importance of investment tax credits also signal where industry capital and innovation are likely to concentrate in the near term.