Trip.com (TCOM) Q4 2025: International OTA Bookings Surge 60% as Inbound Travel Doubles
Trip.com’s fourth quarter capped a year of aggressive international expansion and robust inbound travel growth, with international OTA bookings up 60% and inbound travelers doubling year-over-year. Strategic bets on AI, inbound tourism, and ecosystem reinvestment are reshaping the business model, but regulatory scrutiny and rising costs remain material watchpoints. Investors face a dynamic mix of global opportunity, margin pressure, and competitive recalibration as Trip.com deepens its cross-border platform and AI-driven service edge.
Summary
- Inbound Travel Acceleration: Doubling of inbound travelers and expanded hotel participation signal a structural growth lever.
- International Mix Shift: Global OTA bookings’ 60% jump lifts international share to 40% of revenue and bookings.
- AI and Ecosystem Investment: Strategic AI deployment and partner enablement underpin long-term moat but elevate near-term cost base.
Performance Analysis
Trip.com’s Q4 capped a year of outsized growth in international and inbound travel, with net revenue up 21% year-over-year for the quarter and 17% for the full year, reflecting both robust leisure demand and the company’s global platform push. Accommodation and air ticketing, the company’s core revenue engines, delivered strong double-digit growth, with accommodation reservation revenue up 21% and transportation ticketing up 12% in Q4, driven by outbound and international bookings.
International business has become a key growth vector, with the international OTA (Online Travel Agency, digital travel booking platform) platform’s gross bookings up 60% year-over-year, now contributing 40% of total revenue and bookings, up from 35% a year ago. Inbound travel, a major strategic pillar, saw approximately 20 million travelers served, nearly doubling year-over-year and bringing 63,000 new hotels into the inbound supply pool. Domestic travel remained resilient, with private tours and the silver generation (senior traveler) segments showing >20% and >100% growth, respectively, in transaction value and membership. However, cost inflation is evident, as adjusted product development and G&A expenses rose 14% for the year, and sales and marketing spend increased to 24% of revenue, up from 22%—reflecting heavier investment in global brand and technology initiatives.
- Margin Pressure from Expansion: Operating income growth trailed revenue growth, as reinvestment into AI, inbound support, and global marketing increased the cost base.
- Platform Ecosystem Effects: 150,000 hotels and 6,000 attractions now serve inbound travelers, broadening supply and reinforcing platform network effects.
- Capital Return Commitment: Share repurchase program was fully utilized, signaling management’s confidence in long-term value creation.
Trip.com’s financials reflect a business model in transition, balancing aggressive reinvestment for global scale and AI leadership with disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns.
Executive Commentary
"At the same time, travelers became more discerning, with greater emphasis on value, flexibility, and service reliability. These evolving preferences reinforce the importance of platforms that can deliver trusted services at scale while contributing positively to the broader travel ecosystem. Going forward, we will focus our investment priorities on three key areas, inbound tourism, social responsibility initiatives, and AI innovation."
James Lam, Executive Chairman of the Board
"For the fourth quarter of 2025, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 15.4 billion, representing a 21% increase from the same period last year... The sequential increase was primarily driven by broader marketing investments with incremental spend allocated to our international expansion... We remain committed to delivering long-term value to our shareholders through sustainable business growth."
Cindy Wong, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Inbound Travel as a Structural Growth Lever
Trip.com is aggressively positioning inbound tourism as a multi-year growth engine, leveraging both platform scale and local market expertise. Inbound travel now accounts for 20 million annual travelers, with a near 100% year-over-year increase and ambitious targets to double city-level contribution in 2026. The company’s unique ability to onboard new hotels, attractions, and travel agencies—63,000 new hotels and 25,000 attractions added to inbound for the first time—expands both supply and demand, creating a virtuous cycle for local economies and platform stickiness.
2. International OTA Platform Expansion
International bookings are driving mix shift and global brand penetration, with APAC (Asia-Pacific) as the primary growth region and notable momentum in Europe and the Middle East. The international OTA’s 60% growth reflects effective localization, mobile-first strategy, and disciplined marketing, with management signaling continued investment to deepen market share and improve profitability, especially in APAC. This expansion diversifies revenue and reduces reliance on domestic market cyclicality.
3. AI and Technology-Led Differentiation
Trip.com is embedding AI as a core pillar of its long-term technology strategy, developing proprietary vertical large models tailored to travel’s operational complexity. Initiatives like Trip Genie and Trip Planner leverage proprietary data, live inventory, and real-time pricing to deliver personalized, bookable experiences. AI-powered content and service tools also empower partners, breaking down language barriers and improving supply chain efficiency. Management sees AI as a force multiplier, not just for user experience but for operational scalability and partner enablement.
4. Ecosystem Investment and Social Responsibility
Reinvestment into the broader travel ecosystem is central to Trip.com’s sustainable growth thesis. The company’s USD 100 million tourism innovation fund, rural revitalization programs, and workforce support policies (including family-friendly benefits and hybrid work) are designed to build long-term resilience and platform credibility. These efforts are not mere PR—they underpin user loyalty, partner engagement, and local economic impact, supporting a multi-stakeholder value creation model.
5. Regulatory Navigation and Compliance
Trip.com faces heightened regulatory scrutiny, with a new investigation by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation. Management is cooperating fully and emphasizes ongoing transparency and compliance, but the probe introduces uncertainty over potential business model or operational changes in 2026 and beyond.
Key Considerations
This quarter’s results reflect both the opportunities and tensions of Trip.com’s platform evolution. Investors must weigh global growth momentum against margin compression, regulatory risk, and intensifying competition.
Key Considerations:
- Global Mix Shift: International revenue and bookings now make up 40% of the total, reducing single-market exposure and increasing platform resilience.
- Inbound Ecosystem Build-Out: Expansion of inbound supply (hotels, attractions, agencies) creates new TAM (Total Addressable Market) but requires sustained investment and operational coordination.
- AI-Driven Moat: Proprietary data, vertical AI, and agentic search/booking tools differentiate the platform from both traditional OTAs and emerging AI agents.
- Margin Trade-Offs: Elevated sales, marketing, and tech spend signal a deliberate reinvestment cycle, but may constrain near-term operating leverage.
- Regulatory Overhang: Ongoing SAMR investigation is a material risk, with unclear duration and potential for mandated business changes.
Risks
Regulatory scrutiny is the most acute near-term risk, as the outcome of the SAMR investigation could lead to operational restrictions, fines, or required changes to platform practices. Margin pressure from sustained reinvestment in AI, marketing, and partner enablement could further compress profits if top-line growth slows. Competitive intensity remains elevated, especially in APAC and domestic markets, with both traditional OTAs and AI-native entrants vying for share. Macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks could also disrupt travel demand and supply chain stability.
Forward Outlook
For Q1 2026, Trip.com guided to:
- Continued double-digit growth in domestic and international bookings, with APAC and Europe highlighted as key drivers.
- Sustained investment in AI, inbound travel support, and ecosystem initiatives.
For full-year 2026, management maintained a focus on:
- Doubling city-level inbound travel contribution and expanding international share.
Management highlighted several factors that will shape 2026:
- Inbound travel is expected to remain a core growth lever, with incremental supply and marketing investment.
- AI-powered product and service innovation will accelerate, with proprietary vertical models and agentic booking tools as differentiators.
Takeaways
Trip.com’s evolving business model is defined by global expansion, AI-powered differentiation, and ecosystem reinvestment, but faces margin headwinds and regulatory risk.
- International and Inbound Engines: Global OTA bookings and inbound travel are reshaping the revenue mix and expanding TAM, but require heavy upfront investment and operational complexity.
- AI as Strategic Moat: Proprietary vertical AI and end-to-end service are positioned as core differentiators against both legacy and AI-native competitors.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: The outcome of the SAMR probe is a key watchpoint for 2026, with potential for material business impact.
Conclusion
Trip.com enters 2026 with strong global momentum and a clear commitment to platform reinvestment and AI leadership. The company’s ability to balance growth, margin discipline, and regulatory navigation will determine whether it can translate its ecosystem ambitions into durable shareholder value.
Industry Read-Through
Trip.com’s results reinforce several industry-wide themes: Global travel demand is robust, with leisure and inbound segments recovering faster than pre-pandemic levels. AI is rapidly becoming table stakes for OTA differentiation, with proprietary data and vertical integration emerging as key sources of defensibility. Regulatory risk is rising for platform businesses in China, with compliance and transparency now central to long-term strategy. Competitors in APAC and Europe—including both legacy OTAs and new AI-driven entrants—should expect continued share battles, margin compression, and heightened user expectations for service reliability, personalization, and end-to-end support.