SSR Mining (SSRM) Q4 2025: Reserve Base Jumps 40%, Unlocking Multi-Year Optionality

2026-02-17 | By EarningsIQ Research

SSR Mining exits 2025 with a 40% increase in reserves and over $1 billion in liquidity, positioning the business for disciplined growth and capital returns. Operational execution at core assets like Puna and Cripple Creek drove above-guidance production and robust free cash flow, enabling the reactivation of a $300 million share buyback. Management’s focus on technical de-risking, brownfield expansion, and prudent capital allocation sets up a year of visible catalysts and portfolio strengthening in 2026.

Summary

• Reserve Expansion Signals Longevity: Reserve growth and new technical studies extend mine life and future output visibility.
• Operational Upside at Core Assets: Puna and Cripple Creek delivered outsized free cash flow, reinforcing asset quality and execution.
• Capital Return and Growth Pipeline: Renewed buyback and large-scale project investments balance near-term returns with long-term growth.

Performance Analysis

SSR Mining delivered a strong finish to 2025, with production exceeding the midpoint of guidance and a step-change in reserve base size. The quarter’s $106 million free cash flow and $535 million cash position underscore robust operational execution, especially at Puna, which set processing records and outperformed guidance for a third consecutive year. Cripple Creek and Victor (CCMV, US gold mine acquired in 2024) also exceeded expectations, generating more than $200 million in mine-site free cash flow against a $100 million acquisition outlay, highlighting rapid payback and integration success.

Full-year all-in sustaining costs (AISC) landed at the top end of guidance, driven by royalty costs linked to gold prices and higher share-based compensation, but remained well-controlled when excluding care and maintenance at Chirpler. Management’s confidence in future cash generation is reflected in the reinstatement of a $300 million share buyback, while capital expenditures are set to rise in 2026 as SSR advances leach pad expansions and technical de-risking at growth projects like Hod Madden.

• Asset-Level Outperformance: Both Puna and CCMV exceeded their upper-end production guidance, driving consolidated margin strength.
• Cost Discipline: AISC control, especially when stripping out non-operating costs, supports margin resilience even as royalty headwinds persist.
• Balance Sheet Fortification: Over $1 billion in liquidity provides flexibility for both shareholder returns and growth investment without diluting financial strength.

SSR’s performance this quarter demonstrates a well-balanced approach to growth, cost control, and capital return, with operational reliability at key assets underpinning the business model.

Executive Commentary

Strategic Positioning

1. Reserve Growth and Technical De-Risking

SSR Mining’s reserve base grew nearly 40% year-over-year, driven by the consolidation of CCMV and Hod Madden, as well as ongoing drilling success. Conservative price assumptions ($1,700/oz gold) highlight further upside leverage to metal prices, while technical studies at Hod Madden and CCMV detail robust net present value and mine life extension potential. This reserve expansion provides a foundation for multi-year production visibility and optionality.

2. Brownfield and Greenfield Pipeline

Capital allocation is tilting toward brownfield (existing site) expansions at Marigold and Puna, with Buffalo Valley, New Millennium, and Cortaderas representing near-term catalysts. Hod Madden, an undeveloped copper-gold project in Turkey, is progressing through pre-construction works, with $15 million per month in early spend de-risking the timeline ahead of a formal build decision. These initiatives aim to convert measured and indicated resources into reserves and extend mine lives across the portfolio.

3. Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

The board’s approval of a $300 million share buyback marks a return to active capital returns after a period focused on portfolio consolidation and growth investments. Prior buyback programs (2021–2024) repurchased 20 million shares at an average price of $15.76, demonstrating a track record of value-accretive repurchases. The company’s liquidity position enables simultaneous funding of growth and capital returns without compromising financial strength.

4. Operational Optimization and Cost Management

SSR’s technical focus on ore blending at Marigold and sequencing at CCMV is designed to optimize recovery and minimize future processing disruptions. Sustaining capital at Marigold is elevated in 2026 due to fleet and plant upgrades, but management frames this as a value-driven, one-time step to support future haulage and mine life extension. Puna’s cost performance and drilling success at Cortaderas further enhance the long-term operating profile.

Key Considerations

SSR’s 2025 results reflect a business at an inflection point, balancing mature asset cash flow with new project advancement and a renewed focus on capital returns.

Key Considerations:

• Technical Rigor Underpins Guidance: Updated mine plans and blending strategies at Marigold and CCMV reflect deep technical work, reducing future operational risk.
• Growth Pipeline Visibility: Hod Madden, Buffalo Valley, and Cortaderas offer multi-year growth levers, with technical milestones expected in the next 12–18 months.
• Capital Allocation Flexibility: Ample liquidity supports both near-term buybacks and long-term project funding, minimizing financing risk in a volatile commodity market.
• Metal Price Leverage: Conservative reserve pricing provides upside torque if gold and silver prices remain elevated, with potential for resource conversion and mine life extension.

Risks

SSR faces ongoing operational and permitting risks, particularly around technical execution of ore blending and heap leach recovery at Marigold and CCMV, as well as regulatory approvals for expansion (notably Amendment 14 at CCMV). Commodity price volatility could impact project economics and capital allocation priorities. The timeline for a Hod Madden construction decision remains subject to joint venture alignment and permitting, introducing execution and timing uncertainty for this key growth asset.

Forward Outlook

For Q1 2026, SSR Mining expects:

• Production of 450,000–535,000 gold equivalent ounces from Marigold, CCMV, Seabee, and Puna
• All-in sustaining costs of $2,360–$2,440 per ounce (or $2,180–$2,260 excluding Chirpler care and maintenance)

For full-year 2026, management maintained guidance:

• Growth capex of $150 million, with significant spend on leach pad expansions and early works at Hod Madden

Management highlighted several factors that will shape 2026:

• Production at Marigold and CCMV will be weighted toward the second half, with higher costs in H1 due to capital timing and grade profile
• Technical reports and resource updates at Marigold, Puna, and other brownfield projects are expected within 12–18 months, potentially unlocking further growth

Takeaways

SSR Mining’s 2025 results and 2026 guidance reflect a business leveraging operational discipline to fund growth and capital returns, with a deep pipeline of near-term catalysts and a fortified reserve base.

• Reserve Growth and Cash Generation: The 40% reserve increase and above-guidance free cash flow provide a platform for both organic and inorganic value creation.
• Technical Execution and De-Risking: Management’s focus on ore blending, mine plan updates, and early-stage project spend reduces future operational and execution risk.
• 2026 Catalysts to Watch: Investors should monitor progress on Hod Madden, technical reports at Marigold and Puna, and the pace of buybacks as key drivers of value realization.

Conclusion

SSR Mining enters 2026 with a fortified balance sheet, expanded reserve base, and a clear commitment to disciplined growth and capital returns. Operational reliability at core assets and technical rigor in project development position the company for sustained value creation, though execution on new projects and permitting will be critical to realizing the full potential of the portfolio.

Industry Read-Through

SSR’s results highlight the value of reserve expansion and technical de-risking in a rising gold price environment, reinforcing the premium placed on long-life, low-cost assets in the sector. The company’s approach to capital returns and disciplined project spend sets a benchmark for peers navigating similar tradeoffs between growth and shareholder yield. Operators with deep brownfield pipelines and conservative reserve pricing are best positioned to capitalize on commodity upswings, while those lacking technical rigor or facing permitting delays may struggle to unlock full asset value. The mining industry’s focus is likely to remain on balance sheet strength, operational consistency, and resource conversion as key sources of competitive advantage.

SSRM Materials Gold Mining Capital Allocation Reserves Brownfield Share Buyback Growth Projects