Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q3 2025: Marketplace Take Rate Climbs 80bps on Value-Added Services Expansion
Kaspi.kz’s third quarter showcased resilient core growth, with the marketplace take rate rising 80 basis points as value-added services and advertising scaled, offsetting smartphone supply headwinds. Despite external drags from high interest rates and regulatory changes, underlying volume and engagement trends remained robust, especially outside the smartphone category. With a $100 million buyback and new product launches, management signals confidence in both near-term recovery and long-term platform monetization.
Summary
- Marketplace Take Rate Expansion: Value-added services and advertising drove a material increase in marketplace monetization.
- Core Growth With External Headwinds: Ex-smartphone verticals delivered strong volume and engagement, absorbing macro and regulatory drag.
- Product Innovation Pipeline: New payment, advertising, and AI tools set the stage for future revenue acceleration.
Performance Analysis
Kaspi.kz delivered consistent top-line growth across its core platforms, with group revenue up 20% year-over-year and net income growth tracking near original guidance when adjusted for external factors. The marketplace segment’s take rate reached an all-time high of 10.3%, up 80 basis points, as value-added services—particularly advertising (up 56% YoY) and delivery—became increasingly material contributors. However, smartphone supply disruptions (notably iPhone 17 shortages) weighed on GMV, muting headline growth to 12% in marketplace; excluding smartphones, GMV rose 20% and revenue 32%.
Payments continued their robust trajectory, with TPV (total payment volume) up 18% YoY and revenue up 10%, as QR code adoption accelerated. Fintech performance was solid, with TFV (total financed volume) up 16% and revenue up 24%, though net income growth was dampened by a 10% tax on government securities and rising reserve requirements. The eGrocery vertical stood out, with GMV up 53% and transactions up 55%, confirming both scale and profitability. Across the board, cost controls and operational gearing supported bottom-line resilience in the face of regulatory and macro headwinds.
- Marketplace Take Rate Surge: Value-added services, especially advertising and delivery, lifted monetization to record levels.
- Smartphone Supply Drag: iPhone shortages suppressed GMV, but underlying transaction growth and engagement remained robust.
- eGrocery Profitability: Grocery operations scaled profitably, with demand outpacing capacity and further city expansion planned.
Despite regulatory and rate-related headwinds, core business momentum remains intact, with multiple levers for revenue and engagement growth as external pressures normalize.
Executive Commentary
"The core business has performed really nicely. Some of the things which have happened from external factors is the smartphone registration requirement and shortage of supply of iPhones that had about 8% impact on the GMV and 3% on the consolidated income. However, we still believe that the demand is there, so next year should be a good year to recover."
Mikhail Lomtadze, CEO and Co-founder
"Payments growth remains robust, but also consistent throughout the year. The combination of strong top line growth, strong volume growth, strong TPV growth, but with take rate dilution results in lower revenue growth, plus 10% and plus 14% for the third quarter and nine month period. Again, as you consistently see in top line dropping through to the bottom line, operational gearing and cost control, faster bottom line growth in payments of 12% and 17% respectively."
David Ferguson, Head of Investor Relations
Strategic Positioning
1. Value-Added Services Drive Marketplace Monetization
Kaspi.kz’s marketplace strategy centers on layering value-added services—not fee hikes—to drive take rate expansion. Advertising and delivery revenues are now the primary sources of incremental monetization, with advertising up 56% YoY and delivery tightly integrated into the super app. This approach deepens merchant stickiness and underpins sustainable margin expansion.
2. Payments Ecosystem: Ubiquity and Flexibility
QR code payments and new modalities like Pay by Palm are broadening consumer choice and merchant acceptance, with seven banks and Alipay now connected. This multi-rail approach (QR, card, palm) aims to anchor Kaspi.kz as the default payment layer in Kazakhstan, driving both transaction growth and data moat advantages.
3. AI and Automation as Merchant Enablement Levers
Kaspi AI Assistant is transforming merchant onboarding and content creation, automating product enrichment and description generation. Early results show meaningful uplifts in clicks and sales (e.g., 83% sales increase for enriched products), positioning AI as a profit driver and merchant acquisition tool.
4. eGrocery and Vertical Integration
eGrocery’s rapid scaling and profitability underscore Kaspi.kz’s ability to enter new verticals with operational discipline. With 1.3 million customers and 10 dark stores, the segment is both a growth and engagement engine, with further city expansion on tap for 2026.
5. Turkey’s Hepsiburada: Investment for Quality Growth
Hepsiburada’s turnaround hinges on delivery, payments, marketing, and UX investments, with recent initiatives driving a sharp acceleration in purchase volumes and GMV. Management emphasizes quality growth and customer engagement over near-term margin, with capital allocation balanced between investment and future cash returns.
Key Considerations
This quarter’s results highlight Kaspi.kz’s ability to deliver core growth in the face of significant external headwinds, while aggressively investing in platform innovation and monetization levers.
Key Considerations:
- Marketplace Take Rate Sustainability: The mix shift toward value-added services suggests continued take rate expansion is achievable, provided merchant adoption remains high.
- Smartphone Supply Resolution: Recovery in high-ticket smartphone sales will provide a significant GMV and revenue tailwind in 2026, resetting growth comps.
- Advertising and AI Scale Potential: Early results in advertising and AI-driven merchant tools signal long-term upside, but penetration remains low relative to global peers.
- Regulatory and Macro Sensitivity: High interest rates and new taxes are material near-term drags, but normalization could unlock margin and net income upside.
Risks
External shocks—especially regulatory changes, high interest rates, and supply chain disruptions—remain the primary risks to near-term results. Prolonged smartphone shortages or further regulatory tightening could extend top-line pressure, while rapid expansion in new verticals (e.g., eGrocery, Turkey) carries execution and capital allocation risks. Management’s ability to balance investment with cash return expectations is a key watchpoint for 2026.
Forward Outlook
For Q4, Kaspi.kz guided to:
- Marketplace GMV growth to moderate further due to continued smartphone constraints.
- Payment TPV growth at the top end of 20% guidance range.
For full-year 2025, management updated guidance:
- Marketplace GMV growth: 19% to 21% (excluding smartphones).
- TPV payment growth: around 20%.
- TFV fintech growth: around 15%.
- Net income growth: around 10% in Kazakhstan, below initial 15% guidance due to external factors.
Management highlighted several factors that will shape 2026:
- Smartphone supply normalization and favorable base effects from March onward.
- Potential margin recovery as interest rates and regulatory impacts stabilize.
Takeaways
Kaspi.kz’s core business remains robust, with marketplace monetization and product innovation offsetting external headwinds.
- Marketplace Monetization: Take rate and value-added services are now the primary margin levers, with advertising and delivery revenues scaling rapidly.
- Strategic Investment Cycle: Ongoing investments in payments, AI, and new verticals are translating into higher engagement and sustainable growth, even as near-term margins are pressured.
- 2026 Recovery Setup: Smartphone normalization, continued adoption of new services, and easing macro headwinds position Kaspi.kz for a growth reacceleration and improved capital returns.
Conclusion
Kaspi.kz’s Q3 results reinforce the strength of its platform model, with core growth drivers intact despite external drags. The company’s focus on value-added services, innovation, and disciplined investment sets the stage for a strong recovery as headwinds abate, with multiple revenue and margin levers for 2026.
Industry Read-Through
Kaspi.kz’s experience this quarter offers several industry signals. First, platform monetization via value-added services (especially advertising and delivery) is now the primary driver of margin expansion for leading marketplaces, even in emerging markets. Second, supply chain shocks—such as smartphone shortages—can materially distort GMV and revenue optics, but underlying engagement metrics may better reflect platform health. Third, rapid adoption of AI-driven merchant enablement tools is likely to become table stakes in digital commerce, with measurable impact on conversion and sales. Finally, the balancing act between investing in growth and returning cash is increasingly central for platform companies facing macro and regulatory volatility.