Fox (FOXA) Q4 2025: Tubi Revenue Jumps 32%, Fueling Digital Acceleration and Fox One Launch
Tubi’s 32% revenue growth and surging digital engagement highlight Fox’s pivot to streaming scale as Fox One’s launch nears. Robust advertising, sports, and news momentum underpin record free cash flow and a $5 billion buyback boost, but cyclical event headwinds and digital investment will reshape earnings cadence in fiscal 2026. Investors face a transition year as Fox balances legacy strength with measured bets on digital and international expansion.
Summary
- Digital Leverage: Tubi’s outperformance and Fox One’s launch signal a deliberate shift toward streaming revenue.
- Advertising Resilience: Live sports and news delivered strong pricing and audience share, offsetting linear declines.
- Capital Return Surge: A $5 billion buyback authorization and dividend hike reinforce management’s confidence in cash generation.
Business Overview
Fox Corporation operates a multi-platform media business focused on news, sports, and entertainment. The company generates revenue through advertising, affiliate fees from pay TV distributors, and digital streaming platforms. Major segments include Television (Fox broadcast network, local stations, Tubi ad-supported streaming) and Cable Network Programming (Fox News, Fox Sports, Fox Nation). Fox’s business model increasingly targets both traditional pay TV and the growing “cordless” streaming audience.
Performance Analysis
Fox delivered record results for fiscal 2025, with double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow, driven by a banner year for sports, political advertising, and continued strength at Fox News and Tubi. Fourth quarter revenue rose 6%, with adjusted EBITDA up 21%. Advertising revenue climbed 7% in Q4, propelled by Tubi’s 32% surge and robust news engagement, offsetting tough sports comps from last year’s major tournaments.
Cable Network Programming saw 7% revenue growth, led by a 15% jump in advertising as Fox News captured over 60% cable news share and set new digital engagement records. Television segment revenue increased 6%, with Tubi’s growth more than compensating for the absence of last year’s major soccer events. Expenses rose 14% for the year, primarily due to higher sports rights costs, but margin expansion and working capital benefits from the Super Bowl supported record free cash flow.
- Affiliate Fee Stability: Affiliate revenues grew 3% in Q4, reflecting pricing gains despite ongoing cord-cutting.
- Digital Profitability Inflection: Tubi achieved improved profitability, with management forecasting “substantial” gains in fiscal 2026 weighted to the back half.
- Cash Generation Peak: Free cash flow hit $3 billion for the year, supporting increased capital returns.
Fox’s performance was underpinned by its differentiated focus on live content and digital expansion, though the coming year brings cyclical and investment-driven earnings volatility.
Executive Commentary
"Fox’s broadcast of Super Bowl 59 broke viewership and advertising records as the most watched telecast in U.S. history, generating over $800 million of gross advertising revenue. And engagement at Fox News led to record audience share, reaching over 70% of the cable news audience at times during the year."
Lachlan Murdoch, Executive Chair and CEO
"The excellent progress we have made at Tubi reinforces our confidence in Tubi’s path to profitability, and its obvious asset value underscores the opportunity to drive ROI from our digital investments more broadly."
Steve Tomczyk, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Tubi as Growth Engine
Tubi, Fox’s ad-supported streaming platform, is now a central pillar of digital strategy, growing revenue 32% in Q4 and surpassing $1.1 billion for the year. Tubi’s unique reach among “cordless” and younger demographics, combined with advanced ad technology and a vast content library, enables Fox to capture advertiser demand shifting from linear TV. Tubi now represents roughly 25% of Fox’s upfront ad commitments, underscoring its rising relevance within the portfolio.
2. Fox One Launch and Digital Investment
Fox One, a direct-to-consumer streaming bundle, launches August 21 at $19.99 per month, targeting the growing segment of viewers outside the cable bundle. Leadership frames Fox One as a modest, measured investment with no incremental exclusive content costs—marketing and tech spend will be flexed based on subscriber traction. The launch is expected to drive digital engagement and expand Fox’s addressable market, with management signaling a “toggle up or down” approach to spending based on performance.
3. Live Content Differentiation
Fox’s focus on live news and sports continues to underpin advertising resilience and audience share. The company’s broadcast of Super Bowl 59 and the upcoming FIFA Men’s World Cup anchor its position as a must-buy platform for advertisers. Fox News remains the most-watched cable network, with digital and social engagement at all-time highs. These live franchises support premium pricing and insulate Fox from broader entertainment viewership declines.
4. International and Adjacency Expansion
Fox is entering Latin America through its acquisition of Caliente TV, a streaming service in Mexico, and organic sports rights assembly. The investment is described as “modest,” with management expecting a multi-year ramp to profitability, mirroring Tubi’s trajectory. The move broadens Fox’s digital TAM (total addressable market) and serves as a testbed for international streaming expansion.
5. Capital Allocation and Shareholder Return
Fox authorized an additional $5 billion for share repurchases and raised its dividend, reflecting management’s confidence in cash generation and a disciplined approach to capital deployment. Since the spin, Fox has returned $8.5 billion to shareholders, including repurchasing 31% of shares outstanding. The company remains open to M&A but maintains a high bar for inorganic investments, prioritizing organic growth and digital execution.
Key Considerations
Fox’s Q4 results reflect a business in transition, balancing legacy cash flow with digital bets and cyclical event swings. The following considerations are central for investors:
Key Considerations:
- Tubi’s Outperformance Sets Benchmark: Tubi’s revenue and engagement growth outpaces CTV peers, supporting Fox’s digital pivot and raising expectations for Fox One’s rollout.
- Cyclical Event Volatility Looms: Fiscal 2026 faces tough comps from Super Bowl and political ad surge, with World Cup investments front-loaded and advertising receipts lagging into fiscal 2027.
- Measured Digital Investment Strategy: Management’s “modest” subscriber goals and spend flexibility for Fox One reduce risk but limit near-term upside.
- Affiliate Revenue Resilience: Only a quarter of distribution revenue is up for renewal in 2026, limiting risk from cord-cutting, though subscriber trends remain a watchpoint.
- Capital Return Commitment: The enlarged buyback and dividend hike signal confidence but may limit firepower for large-scale M&A or transformative deals.
Risks
Fox faces earnings volatility in fiscal 2026 as Super Bowl and political ad tailwinds recede and digital investments ramp, particularly for Fox One and Latin America. Execution risk around Fox One’s launch, competitive pressure in streaming, and continued subscriber attrition in pay TV represent ongoing challenges. Regulatory shifts in affiliate relationships and macroeconomic advertising swings could further impact results.
Forward Outlook
For Q1 and fiscal 2026, Fox guided to:
- Continued digital investment, with Fox One launch costs and Latin America expansion front-loaded in the first half.
- Substantial improvement in Tubi profitability, weighted to the back half as investments in new initiatives moderate.
For full-year 2026, management did not provide formal financial guidance but noted:
- Core advertising and affiliate revenue trends remain healthy, with upside from the FIFA Men’s World Cup in Q4 and Q1 2027.
- Working capital headwinds from World Cup rights payments will reverse as advertising receipts are collected in fiscal 2027.
Management highlighted several factors that will shape the year:
- Political and Super Bowl revenue headwinds concentrated in the first half
- Digital investment envelope expected to return to approximately $350 million, with flexibility based on performance
Takeaways
Fox’s quarter underscores a disciplined, multi-year transition from legacy TV toward digital scale and streaming monetization, with Tubi and Fox One at the center of its growth narrative.
- Digital Execution Is Gaining Traction: Tubi’s scale and profitability path offer a credible template for Fox One and international streaming, but patience is required for returns.
- Cyclical Swings Will Drive Near-Term Volatility: Earnings cadence in fiscal 2026 will be uneven as event-driven revenue normalizes and digital investments peak in early quarters.
- Key Watchpoints Ahead: Fox One subscriber adoption, Tubi profitability ramp, and World Cup monetization will be critical in assessing the sustainability of Fox’s digital pivot.
Conclusion
Fox exits fiscal 2025 with record financial results, robust cash flow, and clear digital momentum. The coming year will test management’s ability to balance legacy stability with streaming innovation, but the company’s measured investment approach and capital return discipline provide a solid foundation for long-term value creation.
Industry Read-Through
Fox’s results reinforce the strategic imperative for media peers to own both premium live content and scalable digital distribution. Tubi’s success highlights the value of ad-supported streaming platforms with broad, cordless reach—an increasingly attractive segment for advertisers as linear TV declines. Direct-to-consumer launches like Fox One reflect a broader industry trend toward bundling owned content for targeted audiences, with spend discipline and modular investment emerging as key risk mitigants. Event-driven volatility and the need for digital profitability are likely to remain central themes across the sector, especially as sports rights costs and regulatory scrutiny intensify.