Eve Air Mobility (TH) Q2 2025: $14B Pre-Order Backlog Anchors Path to 2027 Entry
Eve Air Mobility’s $14 billion pre-order backlog and first firm order conversion set a clear commercialization path, but certification and prototype schedules remain tight. The company’s dual-supplier propulsion strategy and disciplined cash management offer flexibility, yet investors should watch for execution risks as the flight test campaign ramps and capital needs for certification approach. Management maintains 2027 entry targets, but the next 18 months will test program maturity and customer conversion.
Summary
- Order Conversion Validates Demand: First firm order and $250 million contract signal real customer commitment.
- Prototype and Certification Execution: Full-scale prototype testing and multi-supplier propulsion path keep 2027 entry in focus.
- Cash Discipline Buys Time: Liquidity secure through 2026, but funding for certification remains a key watchpoint.
Performance Analysis
Eve remains a pre-revenue, development-stage business, with financials dominated by R&D and SG&A tied to eVTOL, aftermarket services, and air traffic management software development. Second quarter investment reached $55 million, with a net loss of $64 million, reflecting increased engineering activity and supplier engagement as the program accelerates toward flight testing. Cash burn for the first half normalized at $83 million, with management guiding full-year consumption at the low end of the $200 to $250 million range, citing leverage from Embraer’s engineering resources and cost discipline.
Liquidity stands at $375 million, combining cash, undrawn facilities, and a $50 million grant, providing runway through 2026 and potentially mid-2027. The company’s first pre-delivery payments (PDPs) from a $250 million contract with REVO mark a shift from LOIs (letters of intent, a non-binding reservation) to binding orders and revenue visibility, albeit with material revenue not expected until 2027. The $14 billion pre-order backlog (2,800 aircraft) and $1.6 billion in aftermarket service contracts anchor future growth, but these are largely non-binding and conversion cadence will be critical.
- R&D Acceleration: Higher engineering spend reflects intensified prototype and supplier activity, with ground tests nearing completion.
- Cash Burn Moderation: First-half burn below $85 million, with disciplined spend and Embraer leverage expected to keep annual burn near guidance floor.
- Backlog Quality Shift: First firm order conversion (REVO) and PDPs mark a transition from pure pipeline to monetizable demand.
The financial story remains one of disciplined spending and backlog build, but near-term results are still driven by program milestones and capital efficiency rather than revenue or margin expansion.
Executive Commentary
"We unveiled our full-scale mock-up at the Paris Air Show in June with a new propeller configuration. We also announced our first firm order and signed additional LOIs. Our schedule remains unchanged with expected TAP certification and entry into service in 2027."
Johan Bolde, Chief Executive Officer
"We continue comfortable with our guidance for the full year of 200 to 250 million, which reflects our financial discipline, advantages of using Embraer's engineering team, as well as our increased efforts in the program development. We view our liquidity as sufficient to sustain our operations through 2026."
Eduardo Couto, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Backlog and Order Conversion
Eve’s $14 billion pre-order backlog (2,800 aircraft) is broad-based, spanning nine countries and a mix of operators, leasing firms, and ride-sharing platforms. The first firm order conversion with REVO (Sao Paulo’s leading helicopter operator) and associated $250 million contract (including aftermarket services) validate both the aircraft and Eve TechCare support suite, moving Eve from pipeline to actionable demand. PDPs (pre-delivery payments) will begin to flow, offering partial funding for assembly and a tangible step toward commercialization.
2. Dual-Supplier Propulsion Strategy
Eve is integrating Beta’s propulsion system alongside Nidec’s, aiming for redundancy and flexibility in its distributed electric propulsion architecture (a system where multiple electric motors provide lift and cruise). Beta brings a proven lift-and-cruise track record and FAA relationships, while Nidec offers engineering and manufacturing scale. This dual-track approach hedges technical and supply risk, but adds complexity to the test and certification campaign.
3. Certification and Prototype Path
The flight test campaign is tracking for late 2025 start, with five conforming prototypes planned for 2026. Recent design changes, including a more aerodynamic wing and quieter, four-blade rotor, are already incorporated into the next-gen prototypes. Management remains confident in a 2027 certification and entry timeline, but acknowledges tight sequencing of design, test, and regulatory milestones.
4. Ecosystem and Aftermarket Integration
TechCare aftermarket contracts now cover 40% of the pre-order book, representing $1.6 billion in potential revenue. The Vector air traffic management solution is gaining traction, with 21 customers signed, and Eve is building a network of infrastructure and energy partners to support urban air mobility (UAM, short-range electric air transport in cities). This holistic ecosystem play is designed to lock in operators and enable reliable, low-cost operations post-launch.
5. Capital Structure and Funding Flexibility
Liquidity is secure through 2026, with multiple funding levers available for certification, including a recently filed shelf registration (pre-approved capital raise), standby credit lines, and potential long-term loans. Eve’s integration with Embraer provides both engineering leverage and access to group-level financing options, but the need for additional capital by 2027 is clear.
Key Considerations
This quarter marks a shift from backlog build to execution risk, as Eve moves toward flight test and certification with a multi-supplier propulsion approach and a growing base of committed customers. The next 18 months will be defined by technical maturity, order conversion, and capital discipline.
Key Considerations:
- Order Conversion Pace: Sustained conversion of LOIs to firm orders and PDPs will be essential for validating demand and funding operations pre-revenue.
- Flight Test Execution: Timely initiation and scale-up of the flight test campaign, including integration of dual propulsion systems, will determine certification credibility.
- Certification Sequencing: Regulatory clarity and on-schedule publication of means of compliance with ANAC are critical for the 2027 entry timeline.
- Capital Requirements for Certification: Liquidity runway is solid through 2026, but investors should monitor timing and terms of the next funding round as certification costs ramp.
Risks
Execution risk is rising as Eve enters the critical prototype and certification phase, with potential for delays in flight testing or regulatory approval. Capital needs for 2027 certification are not yet fully secured, and conversion of non-binding LOIs to firm orders may slow if market conditions or competitive dynamics shift. Supplier complexity, with two propulsion partners, could introduce integration and reliability risks. Competitive moves, such as Joby’s acquisition of Blade’s passenger business, underscore the evolving landscape and potential for share shifts.
Forward Outlook
For Q3 and Q4 2025, Eve guided to:
- Flight test campaign for the engineering prototype commencing late 2025
- Continued build-out of conforming prototypes, with five targeted for 2026
For full-year 2025, management maintained guidance:
- Cash consumption at the low end of $200 to $250 million
Management cited ongoing cost discipline, leverage from Embraer engineering, and additional grant/credit line support as drivers of cash runway. Key milestones are the start of flight testing, further firm order conversions, and publication of certification means of compliance by ANAC.
- Order conversion and PDP inflows
- Supplier integration and test maturity
Takeaways
Eve’s strategic shift to firm orders and a $14 billion backlog anchors its commercialization narrative, but the company now faces a test of execution as it moves from design to flight and certification. Capital discipline and ecosystem integration offer competitive differentiation, yet the next 18 months will be defined by technical milestones and capital market access.
- Execution on Flight Test and Certification: Investors should focus on prototype maturity, propulsion integration, and regulatory progress as the gating items for the 2027 launch.
- Order Book Quality and Conversion: The pace of LOI-to-firm order conversion and associated cash inflows will determine the strength of Eve’s commercialization bridge.
- Capital Structure Flexibility: Watch for timing, terms, and mix of future funding as the company approaches the capital-intensive certification phase.
Conclusion
Eve Air Mobility’s Q2 2025 results mark a transition from backlog build to execution risk, as the company advances toward flight testing and certification with a diversified propulsion strategy and disciplined capital management. The $14 billion order book and first firm order conversion validate demand, but the next phase will test technical, regulatory, and funding readiness ahead of the 2027 commercialization target.
Industry Read-Through
Eve’s backlog conversion and multi-supplier propulsion approach signal growing maturity in the eVTOL sector, as operators demand both technical flexibility and robust aftermarket support. Joby’s acquisition of Blade’s passenger business highlights the convergence of OEMs and platform operators, reinforcing the need for manufacturers to integrate ecosystem solutions beyond the airframe. The pace of order conversion and regulatory progress at Eve will serve as a bellwether for other eVTOL entrants, with capital efficiency and supply chain agility emerging as key differentiators in the race to certification and urban air mobility scale.