Docebo (DCBO) Q4 2025: Enterprise Pipeline Drives 14.5% ARR Growth Ex-AWS, Setting Up H2 Reacceleration
Docebo’s Q4 revealed a business in strategic transition, with enterprise and government pipeline momentum offsetting legacy headwinds and a disciplined push into AI-driven learning and skills intelligence. The 365 Talents acquisition is already yielding cross-sell opportunity and data moat expansion, while management’s focus on execution, capital returns, and operational leverage signals a readiness for organic growth reacceleration in the second half of 2026.
Summary
- Enterprise Pipeline Turnaround: Early signs of improved execution and focused GTM realignment are building a foundation for renewed enterprise momentum.
- AI and Data Moat Expansion: Integration of 365 Talents and agentic AI capabilities is deepening product defensibility and expanding cross-sell potential.
- Capital Allocation Discipline: Aggressive share buybacks and measured M&A reflect management’s conviction in underlying value and organic growth prospects.
Performance Analysis
Docebo delivered solid Q4 results, with total ARR growth of 12.5% and an even stronger 14.5% ex-AWS and Dayforce, reflecting underlying demand strength in core segments. Mid-market and EMEA outperformed, while enterprise bookings showed early signs of recovery after a disappointing 2025. The company’s net dollar retention (NDR) landed at 99%, but would have been 101% excluding AWS, with sequential improvement in expansion activity and gross retention, especially in the commercial (SMB) segment.
Profitability remains a standout, with EBITDA margin expansion driven by disciplined G&A and R&D leverage, even as the company invests in product and go-to-market (GTM) transformation. The Q4 gross bookings represented the strongest growth since late 2021, though headline ARR was masked by structural headwinds from large customer churns (notably AWS and Dayforce). QSR (quick service restaurant) wins and system integrator (SI) partnerships, especially with Deloitte and Accenture, are translating into deeper enterprise pipeline and new routes to market.
- Segment Mix Shift: Mid-market and EMEA continued to drive growth, counterbalancing slower enterprise execution.
- Expansion vs. New Logo Efficiency: Expansion bookings rose to 40% of gross bookings, improving cost efficiency and margin profile.
- Operational Leverage: EBITDA margin expanded by 2 points YoY, with further leverage expected in 2026 from G&A and disciplined headcount management.
Management’s guidance embeds conservative assumptions for enterprise and government ramp, but leading indicators point to a stronger H2 as pipeline conversion accelerates and 365 Talents cross-sell gains traction.
Executive Commentary
"We own the data. We own the compliance data, the skills chart data, and no LLM owns any of that. And so that data becomes then what? The catalyst for those agents to take action, right? Agents are not magicians, right? An agent without data is like a Ferrari with no fuel."
Alessio Artufo, Chief Executive Officer
"We believe the trading price of our shares does not reflect the underlying value of our business and our future prospects. From a mechanics perspective, the SIB is the most efficient path to meaningfully buy back shares."
Brandon Farber, Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Enterprise and Government as Growth Catalysts
Docebo’s strategic focus has shifted decisively toward mid-enterprise and strategic enterprise customers, with government emerging as a major new vertical following recent FedRAMP compliance. While mid-market remains healthy, enterprise pipeline is now the primary lever for outperformance, with Q1 flagged as a test of execution after GTM leadership changes and process reengineering.
2. 365 Talents Integration and Cross-Sell
The 365 Talents acquisition extends Docebo’s platform into skills intelligence, enabling an integrated workflow from skills assessment to learning remediation. Initial integration is live and already generating cross-sell opportunities, especially among large enterprises with fragmented HR tech stacks. Management expects 365 to drive both standalone and bundled sales, accelerating expansion bookings in H2 and providing a differentiated second product entry point into complex organizations.
3. AI Monetization and Data Moat Strategy
Docebo is actively piloting AI credit pricing, but early customer feedback is mixed, with technology-first clients more receptive than traditional buyers. The company is committed to a hybrid pricing model that aligns with customer buying processes, resisting industry pressure to push pure consumption-based models. Ownership of proprietary compliance, skills, and learning data underpins the company’s agentic AI roadmap, reinforcing competitive defensibility as AI adoption matures in enterprise learning.
4. Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
Management’s substantial issuer bid (SIB) underscores conviction in the company’s intrinsic value, with buybacks prioritized over additional large-scale M&A in the near term. Net leverage remains low post-365 acquisition, preserving flexibility for disciplined capital deployment as organic growth reaccelerates.
5. Channel and SI Partner Leverage
Nearly 80% of the enterprise pipeline now involves a system integrator, reflecting a successful multi-year investment in SI relationships. Partnerships with Deloitte and others are facilitating larger, more complex deals, including AWS marketplace integrations, and are expected to drive incremental pipeline and lead gen in 2026 and beyond.
Key Considerations
Docebo’s Q4 marks a transitional inflection, with management doubling down on execution, product innovation, and capital allocation. The integration of 365 Talents and the maturation of the agentic AI roadmap are set to reshape the company’s growth and margin profile.
Key Considerations:
- Pipeline Quality Over Quantity: GTM realignment is prioritizing high-fit, high-value enterprise leads, shifting away from low-value SMB volume.
- Expansion Efficiency: Expansion bookings are becoming a larger share of mix, supporting margin leverage and lowering CAC.
- AI Pricing Flexibility: Management’s pragmatic approach to AI monetization, favoring hybrid pricing, reduces risk of customer pushback and revenue volatility.
- QSR and Frontline Worker Innovation: Investment in AI Virtual Coaching and adaptive mobile capabilities targets significant untapped opportunity in QSR and frontline-heavy sectors.
- Shareholder Alignment: SIB and ongoing buybacks reinforce management’s alignment with long-term value creation, even as organic growth is prioritized over further M&A.
Risks
Execution risk remains material in the enterprise and government segments, where pipeline conversion is critical to achieving H2 growth targets. AI monetization is still nascent, with customer acceptance of new pricing models uncertain. Competitive pressure from larger HR tech and learning vendors persists, though Docebo’s data moat and agentic innovation provide some insulation. Macro headwinds or delays in government procurement cycles could also impact revenue realization timing.
Forward Outlook
For Q1 2026, Docebo guided to:
- Continued mid-market and EMEA strength, with enterprise expected to show improved execution
- 365 Talents contributing approximately $9 million pro rata to revenue
For full-year 2026, management maintained guidance:
- Organic growth reacceleration modeled for Q3 and Q4, as AWS and Dayforce headwinds fully lap
- EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 2 points YoY, with further G&A and R&D leverage
Management highlighted several factors that could drive upside:
- Enterprise pipeline conversion and large deal wins, particularly in government and QSR verticals
- Cross-sell and bundled sales of 365 Talents to existing Docebo customers
Takeaways
Docebo’s Q4 signals a business poised for a second-half inflection, with leading indicators in enterprise, government, and SI channels pointing to renewed growth. The 365 Talents integration and AI roadmap are expanding the company’s defensible moat and opening new cross-sell vectors.
- Enterprise Execution Is Key: The main lever for outperformance is enterprise pipeline conversion, with government as a future growth accelerant.
- AI and Data Moat Differentiate: Proprietary learning and skills data, combined with agentic AI, set Docebo apart in a crowded market.
- Watch for H2 Reacceleration: Investors should monitor pipeline conversion, 365 cross-sell uptake, and margin leverage as key markers for sustained growth in 2026 and beyond.
Conclusion
Docebo’s disciplined approach to GTM realignment, product innovation, and capital allocation is positioning the company for renewed growth and margin expansion. The next two quarters will be critical in validating enterprise pipeline conversion and the ability to scale the 365 Talents opportunity, setting the stage for a stronger H2 and long-term value creation.
Industry Read-Through
Docebo’s experience underscores the growing importance of proprietary data and agentic AI in enterprise learning, with hybrid AI monetization emerging as a pragmatic approach amid customer pushback on pure consumption models. The rise of SI partnerships and bundled platform sales is becoming a critical differentiator in the learning tech and HR software landscape. Vendors with deep data moats, flexible pricing, and the ability to serve both offensive (AI upskilling) and defensive (AI compliance) customer needs are best positioned to win as enterprise buyers navigate digital and AI transformation at scale.