Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) Q2 2025: Ojemda Scripts Jump 15% as Persistence Drives $140M+ Guidance
Ojemda’s first full year on market delivered a pivotal inflection for Day One Biopharmaceuticals, with prescription growth and payer coverage fueling robust revenue guidance for 2025. Physician adoption deepened, new long-term data boosted confidence, and disciplined cost management strengthened the company’s cash position. With expanded clinical evidence and global filings underway, management is signaling a durable growth runway anchored in specialty oncology execution.
Summary
- Physician Adoption Accelerates: Prescribing breadth and depth expanded, with 15% script growth and over 1,000 quarterly prescriptions.
- Persistence and Payer Access Anchor Outlook: High persistence and >95% paid patient rate support revenue visibility.
- Indication Expansion and Data Readouts Ahead: Firefly 2, European filings, and three-year follow-up data set up potential upside.
Performance Analysis
Day One’s commercial transition is now fully realized, with Ojemda, the company’s therapy for relapsed/refractory pediatric low-grade glioma (PLGG), delivering $33.6 million in Q2 net product revenue—a sequential increase of 10%. This marks a cumulative $113.1 million in trailing 12-month revenue, well above initial launch expectations. Prescription growth was robust, with total scripts exceeding 1,000 in Q2 for the first time, and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase driven by both new patient starts and repeat prescriptions.
Payer coverage remains a core strength, with over 95% of Ojemda patients reimbursed and 90% receiving approval on first submission, minimizing administrative friction for providers and accelerating patient access. Operational efficiency gains were evident, as total costs and operating expenses fell 5% quarter-over-quarter, and net cash used in operations was halved. The quarter ended with $453 million in cash and no debt, providing ample runway for pipeline advancement and commercial scaling.
- Commercial Execution Surpasses Launch Benchmarks: Ojemda’s 22% compound quarterly revenue growth since launch highlights sustained demand.
- Persistence Remains High: Median duration of therapy not yet reached, signaling strong patient retention and recurring revenue potential.
- Cost Discipline Enhances Optionality: Lowered operating expenses and cash burn support self-funded growth and R&D investment.
Momentum is expected to continue as new clinical data and expanded indications further entrench Ojemda in standard-of-care protocols.
Executive Commentary
"With Agenda's approval, we've transformed Day One into a commercial organization and laid the groundwork for long-term value creation. We built a high-performing, focused company with demonstrated execution, a solid financial position, and a portfolio that will deliver durable growth."
Dr. Jeremy Bender, Chief Executive Officer
"The midpoint of the guidance range implies approximately 150% year-over-year growth, which builds on the strong launch results delivered to date. It also reflects continued momentum in the launch trajectory and in achieving our goal of establishing OGEMDA as a standard of care in the relapse refractory setting."
Charles York, Chief Operating and Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Ojemda Market Penetration and Standard-of-Care Ambition
Ojemda, targeted therapy for BRAF-altered PLGG, continues to gain traction as both breadth (number of prescribing accounts) and depth (patients per account) increase. Over 60% of accounts have now prescribed Ojemda to multiple patients, and nearly 20% have initiated five or more patients. This deepening adoption signals rising physician confidence and positions Ojemda to become the standard of care in second-line PLGG.
2. Clinical Evidence and Data-Driven Commercial Strategy
New long-term data, including two-year Firefly One follow-up and ASCO presentations on growth velocity and rash management, have strengthened the efficacy and safety narrative. These data have directly fueled a ramp in new patient starts and are shaping promotional strategies. The upcoming three-year data set, expected in Q4, is poised to further inform duration-of-therapy decisions and could extend treatment persistence.
3. Global Expansion and Pipeline Progression
International growth levers are in motion, with Ipsen’s European Medicines Agency (EMA) filing for Ojemda and a potential approval expected mid-2026. The Firefly 2 trial for frontline PLGG is on track for enrollment completion in H1 2026, offering a path to first-line indications. Meanwhile, the pipeline is being actively managed—investment in the VRK1 program was discontinued, while the PTK-7 targeted ADC, Day 301, advances through phase 1 dose escalation.
4. Capital Allocation and Financial Flexibility
With a $453 million cash balance and no debt, Day One is insulated from near-term capital market volatility. This financial strength allows continued investment in both commercial execution and R&D, including the next wave of pipeline candidates, without diluting shareholders.
Key Considerations
Day One’s Q2 marks a critical inflection as the company shifts from launch mode to scaling a specialty oncology franchise. The interplay of commercial momentum, clinical validation, and disciplined spending underpins a credible growth narrative.
Key Considerations:
- Script Growth Inflection: 15% quarter-over-quarter prescription growth reflects both new patient starts and deepening prescriber loyalty.
- Payer Access and Persistence: High paid patient rates and lengthy therapy duration drive revenue quality and predictability.
- Data as a Commercial Catalyst: Positive long-term outcomes and safety data directly influence physician adoption and patient retention.
- Pipeline and Indication Optionality: Firefly 2 and EMA filings create near- and mid-term catalysts for addressable market expansion.
- Cost Control as a Strategic Lever: Operating discipline preserves capital for growth investments and mitigates external funding risk.
Risks
Key risks include the potential for slower-than-expected new patient starts or declines in persistence, which would directly impact revenue trajectory. Regulatory delays or negative data readouts from Firefly 2 or EMA review could stall expansion plans. Competitive pipeline entrants targeting BRAF-altered gliomas or other pediatric oncology indications may threaten Ojemda’s market position if they demonstrate superior efficacy or safety. Market access or reimbursement headwinds could also erode payer coverage rates, impacting financial predictability.
Forward Outlook
For Q3 2025, Day One expects:
- Continued double-digit sequential revenue growth for Ojemda
- Strong script momentum driven by new data and prescriber engagement
For full-year 2025, management guided:
- Net product revenue of $140 to $150 million for Ojemda
Management emphasized that persistence on therapy and the pace of new patient starts are the two most critical drivers for achieving guidance. The company expects the gross-to-net discount to remain in the 12% to 15% range and will maintain disciplined channel inventory management. Upcoming three-year Firefly One data and continued payer coverage are expected to support further growth.
- Three-year data readout in Q4 could extend duration-of-therapy assumptions
- EMA decision and Firefly 2 enrollment completion are key 2026 milestones
Takeaways
Day One’s specialty oncology model is showing early signs of scale and defensibility, with Ojemda’s commercial ramp and payer access setting a strong foundation for future growth.
- Commercial Model Validated: Strong script growth and deepening prescriber engagement demonstrate product-market fit and expandability.
- Financial Flexibility Maintained: Cost discipline and a robust cash position enable both commercial scaling and pipeline investment without external capital pressure.
- Future Watchpoints: Monitor new patient start velocity, persistence trends post-three-year data, and progress on international filings and pipeline milestones.
Conclusion
Day One’s Q2 results reinforce a specialty pharma growth story built on execution, data-driven adoption, and prudent financial stewardship. The company’s ability to sustain momentum as it pursues broader indications and global expansion will determine the durability of its current trajectory.
Industry Read-Through
Ojemda’s rapid commercial uptake and payer access highlight the value of targeted therapies in rare pediatric oncology, setting a benchmark for specialty biopharma launches. The importance of long-term outcomes data, proactive adverse event management, and payer strategy are themes likely to influence peer launches in orphan and specialty indications. The disciplined cost management and self-funded growth model provide a template for emerging biotechs navigating volatile capital markets. Pipeline reprioritization and global partnering will remain critical for companies aiming to maximize asset value and market reach in specialty therapeutics.