Airgain (AIRG) Q3 2025: Wi-Fi 7 Shipments Up 50%, Platform Bets Poised for 2026 Inflection

November 12, 2025 | By EarningsIQ Research

Airgain’s disciplined execution fueled a third straight quarter of sequential revenue growth and a sharp 50 percent surge in Wi-Fi 7 cable operator sales, but near-term moderation looms as core product lines face inventory headwinds and government project delays. As Lighthouse and Airgain Connect platforms reach certification and enter commercial pilots, the company’s transition from component supplier to scalable systems provider is gathering momentum for 2026. Investors should watch for platform ramp timing, OPEX discipline, and the pace of design win conversions as key drivers of next year’s growth trajectory.

Summary

  • Wi-Fi 7 Momentum: Tier 1 cable operator sales surged on technology refresh, anchoring core revenue base.
  • Platform Progress: Airgain Connect and Lighthouse certifications unlock new markets but face elongated sales cycles.
  • 2026 Inflection Watch: Execution on design wins and pilot conversions will determine scale and profitability path.

Performance Analysis

Airgain delivered its third consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth, reaching $14 million and landing at the midpoint of guidance. Consumer segment strength was evident, with Wi-Fi 7 antenna shipments to cable operators up over 50 percent year-to-date, reflecting the impact of the Wi-Fi 7 upgrade cycle at Tier 1 customers. Embedded modem sales also posted double-digit growth, now accounting for more than half of enterprise market revenue, driven by utility infrastructure demand.

However, enterprise antenna and automotive revenues declined sequentially, with asset tracker and aftermarket antenna sales weighed down by project delays and inventory overhang, especially in government channels. Gross margin improved 160 basis points YoY to 44.4 percent, benefiting from favorable product mix and cost controls. Operating expenses fell both sequentially and YoY, reflecting targeted cost realignment in core lines even as platform investments ramped up. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive, but management guided to a sequential revenue decline in Q4 as core markets normalize after strong YTD performance.

  • Consumer Outperformance: Wi-Fi 7 cable operator shipments drove the bulk of sequential and YoY growth.
  • Embedded Modem Expansion: Utility and grid monitoring applications are fueling sustained double-digit growth.
  • Margin Resilience: Gross margin gains reflect improved product mix and cost discipline despite mixed segment trends.

While the core business remains a steady cash generator, management is increasingly reliant on platform adoption to drive the next phase of growth, underscoring the importance of design win conversion and pilot scale-up in 2026.

Executive Commentary

"Throughout 2025, we have remained deliberate about how we built Airgain, focusing on what we can control, refining where we compete, and executing step-by-step to create a stronger, more scalable company. That focus continues to show in our results... Our strategy is working, momentum is building, and execution remains our priority."

Jacob Swen, President and CEO

"While total expenses have decreased, we continue to invest in our growth platforms, specifically the sales, marketing, and engineering functions to support a scalable system solution company. On a year-to-date basis, our non-GAAP engineering, sales, and marketing expenses decreased 10% year-over-year. Within that, we estimate the engineering, sales, and marketing expenses for our core product lines decreased by approximately 30%, while investment in our growth platforms increased by about 30%."

Michael Elbaz, CFO

Strategic Positioning

1. Core Markets: Funding the Platform Transition

Airgain’s core consumer and embedded modem businesses remain the financial engine, providing stability and cash flow to fund growth initiatives. The Wi-Fi 7 transition among Tier 1 cable operators and new embedded modem wins in utility monitoring are offsetting softness in asset tracking and aftermarket antennas, where government project delays and inventory overhang are likely to persist into 2026. Management expects modest core market growth next year, emphasizing their role as a self-sustaining foundation.

2. Growth Platforms: Airgain Connect and Lighthouse

Airgain Connect, 5G gateway platform, achieved both AT&T and T-Mobile certifications, unlocking access to public safety, utility, and enterprise fleet markets. The sales pipeline is robust, with about 80 opportunities in play, but the sales cycle is long—especially for larger Tier 1 and Tier 2 fleet customers, where revenue conversion is expected to ramp through 2026. Lighthouse, 5G network repeater, secured FCC certification and is now in trials with a US Tier 1 carrier and international partners, targeting commercial deployments in the second half of next year. The platform’s unique channel aggregation and solar-powered off-grid capabilities position it as a differentiated solution for network extension.

3. Capital Discipline: Balancing Growth and Efficiency

Management is maintaining tight OPEX control, with core product line expenses down 30 percent while platform investments rose 30 percent. The company aims to remain at or above EBITDA break-even as it ramps platform investments, signaling a cautious approach to scaling ahead of proven commercial traction. Cash reserves remain adequate, buoyed by one-time employee retention credits, but further platform investment will require careful monitoring of working capital and payback from new deployments.

4. Customer Engagement and Design Win Visibility

Recent Tier 1 Wi-Fi 7 design wins and ongoing pilot programs with major carriers support management’s confidence in the commercial ramp for both Airgain Connect and Lighthouse. The announced Tier 1 US carrier design win for a next-gen fiber gateway, with projected shipments exceeding 5 million units over five years, exemplifies the company’s growing strategic relevance in next-gen connectivity infrastructure. However, the timing of revenue recognition remains dependent on customer deployment schedules and successful pilot conversions.

Key Considerations

This quarter underscores Airgain’s evolution from a niche component supplier to a platform-driven systems provider, with core markets providing ballast and growth platforms offering upside optionality. The company’s ability to balance OPEX discipline with targeted investment is a central theme as it navigates a complex end-market environment.

Key Considerations:

  • Platform Adoption Trajectory: Certification wins are necessary, but large-scale revenue will depend on customer pilot conversion and design win execution in 2026.
  • Government and Channel Headwinds: Project delays and inventory overhang in government and aftermarket channels are likely to persist into the first half of 2026, tempering near-term growth.
  • OPEX Flexibility: Management’s commitment to break-even EBITDA while investing in platforms will be tested as scaling ramps and working capital needs rise.
  • Customer Concentration: Tier 1 cable and carrier customers drive a disproportionate share of revenue, making execution on large design wins critical for growth and risk management.

Risks

Elongated sales cycles for Airgain Connect and Lighthouse, especially with Tier 1 and Tier 2 customers, pose timing risk for platform revenue ramp. Government budget constraints and deployment delays create uncertainty in legacy channels, while supply chain disruptions or further macro headwinds could impact both revenue and margin structure. Customer concentration and the need for ongoing certification success add to execution risk as the company pivots toward platform-led growth.

Forward Outlook

For Q4 2025, Airgain guided to:

  • Revenue between $12 million and $14 million (midpoint $13 million), reflecting a sequential decline of about 7 percent
  • Non-GAAP gross margin of 42.5 to 45.5 percent (midpoint 44 percent)
  • Non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $5.8 million, supporting positive adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint

For full-year 2026, management expects:

  • Modest core market growth as consumer and embedded modem lines provide stability
  • Platform revenue ramp driven by Airgain Connect design wins and Lighthouse commercial deployments in the second half

Management highlighted:

  • Visibility into Tier 1 cable and carrier design wins, with major deployments expected to begin in the second half of 2026
  • Ongoing OPEX discipline and capital efficiency, with investment focused on scalable platform opportunities

Takeaways

Airgain’s Q3 results validate its dual-pronged strategy: core market stability funds the transition, while platform bets hold the key to outsized upside in 2026 and beyond. Execution on design win conversion and pilot deployments will be the deciding factors for scale and profitability.

  • Core Strength: Wi-Fi 7 and embedded modem momentum anchor near-term revenue, but legacy channel headwinds persist.
  • Platform Leverage: Certifications and pilot traction for Airgain Connect and Lighthouse set the stage for a 2026 inflection, but execution risk remains high.
  • Investor Focus: Watch for Tier 1 deployment timing, OPEX management, and cash flow discipline as key signals of sustainable growth and value creation.

Conclusion

Airgain exits Q3 2025 with a more focused, disciplined operating model and tangible progress on its platform roadmap. The next twelve months will test management’s ability to convert pipeline into scale, balancing cost discipline with the need to capture emerging market opportunities.

Industry Read-Through

Airgain’s results reinforce that connectivity infrastructure is entering a new upgrade cycle, with Wi-Fi 7 and 5G transitions driving demand for both core and platform solutions. Lengthy sales cycles and government funding volatility are sector-wide challenges, particularly for players dependent on public sector or Tier 1 carrier deployments. The growing importance of integrated, software-defined, and energy-efficient connectivity platforms is a clear signal for other wireless and IoT solution providers: success will hinge on balancing certification, customer engagement, and capital discipline as the industry pivots toward scalable systems over legacy components.

AIRG Technology Wireless Equipment Connectivity Platform Wi-Fi 7 5G OPEX